Saturday, March 22, 2014

Sunland Derby Stakes Racing Roundup



The “Road To The Kentucky Derby” rolls west to New Mexico, Sunday, where nine young Thoroughbreds will go to starting gate in the 12th running of the $800,000 Sunland Derby (G3) at Sunland Park. Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert, who won the Derby last year with Govenor Charlie, will send Midnight Hawk, the morning-line 5-2 favorite, and Chitu (4-1) to the post in what appears to be a wide-open horserace.
In February, the two Baffert horses competed in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park where Chitu was a half-length runner up to Candy Boy and outran Midnight Hawk by 1¼-lengths. Since that race, Midnight Hawk ran in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) where he was a 7¼-length runner up to California Chrome and Chitu has been steadily working out at Santa Anita Park.
Leading up to the Lewis Stakes, Chitu fired several bullet work outs. However, since that race his work outs have not been as brilliant. In fact, as my good friend Larry Knepper pointed out to me, three of Chitu’s workouts were on the same day that Midnight Hawk worked and he outperformed Chitu in those works.
I think that Midnight Hawk and Chitu will be competitive in this race and it will be interesting to see which one best handles the stretch out to 9-furlongs.
A long shot I like best in this race is Garen (10-1) who’s stepping up in class for trainer Peter Miller and he comes into the Derby with a 1-0-0 record in three starts. Garen, a half-brother to Invasor, appears to be a young horse who is improving each time he goes to the track.
In his maiden debut on December 28, Garen was beaten by 14-lengths in a 6-furlong sprint at Santa Anita Park. In January at Santa Anita, Garen finished fourth in a 5½-furlong sprint but, this time, he was only two lengths shy of victory. Finally, in February, Garen broke his maiden when Miller stretched him out to 8½-furlongs. Prior to his maiden win, Garen fired a bullet work out and his works since then have steadily improved.
Garen could be getting good at the right time of year and another move forward would make him competitive in the Sunland Derby (G3).
Trainer Todd Pletcher ships Commissioner (7-2) from Florida into the Derby off of a sixth-place finish in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulstream Park. Commissioner comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in four starts and he’s already won twice at this 9-furlong distance.
Commissioner picks up blinkers for the first time and if he can return to the form of his previous wins at 9-furlongs he could be competitive in the Sunland Derby (G3).
Honorable mention goes to Rebranded (12-1) who’s another long shot I like in this race. He comes into the Derby with a 1-2-1 record in six starts and in his last race he finished second in the Mine That Bird Derby on February 22.
Trainer Justin Evans fits Rebranded with blinkers for the first time and he has room to improve in his second start as a three year old. Another move forward could make him competitive in the Sunland Derby (G3).

2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. We Miss Artie, 60, Todd Pletcher, $544,000
2. Samraat, 60, Rick Violette, Jr., $450,000
3. Hoppertunity, 55, Bob Baffert, $376,000
4. Intense Holiday, 53, Todd Pletcher, $327,500
5. Wildcat Red, 50, Jose Garrofalo, $410,000
6. Ring Weekend, 50, Graham Motion, $210,000
7. California Chrome, 50, Art Sherman, $182,250
8. Tapiture, 42, Steve Asmussen, $420,738
9. Midnight Hawk, 32, Bob Baffert, $144,000
10. Albano, 24, Larry Jones, $150,000
10. Uncle Sigh, 24, Gary Contessa, $150,000
12. Vinceremos, 20, Todd Pletcher, $190,000
13. Vicar’s in Trouble, 20, Mike Maker, $160,000
14. General A Rod, 20, Mike Maker, $140,000
15. Ride On Curlin, 15, Billy Gowan, $154,387
16. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
17. Cairo Prince, 14, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $470,000
18. Honor Code, 14, Shug McGaughey, $340,000
19. Kristo, 14, John Sadler, $56,000
20. Coastline, 13, Mark Casse, $129,679

Friday, March 21, 2014

Spiral Stakes Racing Roundup



The “Road To The Kentucky Derby” runs through the Bluegrass State Saturday where California-invader Tamarando, the morning line 3-1 favorite, heads a wide-open field of 12 young Thoroughbreds who will go to the starting gate in the 43rd running of the $550,000 Horseshoe Casino Cincinnati Racing Spiral Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park in Florence, Kentucky.
Tamarando, ranked 19th in the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard point standings, is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer and he comes into this race with a narrow half-length victory in the 9-furlong El Camino Real Derby (G3) at Golden Gate Fields in February. Here’s a video of that race and the chart call:

TAMARANDO was unhurried to the half then was asked for speed into the second turn, rallied while circling five wide to the stretch then dug in determinedly late and caught DANCE WITH FATE in the late stages.

Since finishing fourth in his maiden debut last June, Tamarando has never finished worse than third and he’s compiled a 4-2-3 record in 10 starts. Whether Tamarando can win this race remains to be seen. But, I look for him to be competitive.
A long shot I like in this race is Smart Cover (20-1), ranked 40th in Derby point standings, who comes into the Spiral with a 1-1-0 record in four starts.
After finishing off the board in his maiden debut last June, Smart Cover showed promise winning a one-mile maiden race at Ellis Park on July 28. His finish time of 1:39.56 for the mile contest is comparable to the mile splits for most of the horses entered in the Spiral Stakes (G3). In September, Smart Cover followed up his maiden win with a second-place finish in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs where he narrowly lost by a neck to Cleburne and finished a neck in front of Tapiture who is ranked seventh in the Derby point standings.
After a seven month layoff, Smart Cover made his debut as a three year old on March 1 in the Palm Beach Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park where he stumbled at the start and finished eleventh. The finish time in that race was a blistering fast 1:46.19 and Smart Cover’s 12-length loss would bring him across the finish line somewhere with a time of 1:48 or 1:49. That finish time would make him very competitive in the Spiral.
Smart Cover has room to improve in his second start as a three year old. And in what appears to be a wide-open Spiral, Smart Cover could bring home an upset at a very nice price.
Another long shot I like is All Tied Up who was tabbed with morning-line odds of 12-1. All Tied Up has yet to earn any Derby points and he comes into this race with a 2-1-1 record in seven turf starts for trainer Todd Pletcher who is 31% in wins switching from turf to an all-weather surface and, overall, he’s 28% in wins on the all-weather.
All Tied Up has won twice at 8½-furlongs and he has the breeding to stretch out to nine furlongs. He likes to come from the back of the herd and, if he has room to run in the stretch, he should be competitive in this race.
We Miss Artie (4-1) is also trained by Todd Pletcher and he’s ranked 23rd in Derby point standings. We Miss Artie comes into this race with a 2-2-0 record in seven starts including a 2¾-length win in the Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) at Keeneland last October and a narrow loss by a head in the Kitten’s Joy Stakes at Gulstream Park on January 19.
Pletcher makes a jockey switch to John Velazquez who in previous races guided We Miss Artie to a 2-1-0 record in four starts and could, perhaps, help him to be competitive in the Spiral.

*****

Under the new scoring system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine eligibility for horses to enter the Derby starting gate, the winner of the Spiral Stakes (G3) will receive 50 points while second-place will yield 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:


2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Samraat, 60, Rick Violette, Jr., $450,000
2. Hoppertunity, 55, Bob Baffert, $376,000
3. Intense Holiday, 53, Todd Pletcher, $327,500
4. Wildcat Red, 50, Jose Garrofalo, $410,000
5. Ring Weekend, 50, Graham Motion, $210,000
6. California Chrome, 50, Art Sherman, $182,250
7. Tapiture, 42, Steve Asmussen, $420,738
8. Midnight Hawk, 32, Bob Baffert, $144,000
9. Albano, 24, Larry Jones, $150,000
9. Uncle Sigh, 24, Gary Contessa, $150,000
11. Vinceremos, 20, Todd Pletcher, $190,000
12. Vicar’s in Trouble, 20, Mike Maker, $160,000
13. General A Rod, 20, Mike Maker, $140,000
14. Ride On Curlin, 15, Billy Gowan, $154,387
15. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
16. Cairo Prince, 14, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $470,000
17. Honor Code, 14, Shug McGaughey, $340,000
18. Kristo, 14, John Sadler, $56,000
19. Tamarando, 12, Jerry Hollendorfer, $490,000
20. Strong Mandate, 11, D. Wayne Lukas, $472,500

Friday, March 14, 2014

Rebel Stakes Racing Roundup



The “Road To The Kentucky Derby” travels to Hot Springs, Arkansas Saturday where a field of only eight young Thoroughbreds will go to the starting gate in the 54th running of the $600,000 Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park race track. Tapiture, currently ranked ninth on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard, has been selected as the 9-5 morning line favorite.
Trained by Steve Asmussen, Tapiture has never finished worse than third and he comes into the Rebel (G2) with a 2-1-2 record in five starts, including a 4¼-length win in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) at Churchill Downs last November and a 4¼-length win in the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn Park in February.
Tapiture has been working out good at Oaklawn Park and looks like the horse to beat in the Rebel.
Strong Mandate, the morning line 2-1 second choice, comes into this race with a 2-1-1 record in six starts, including a third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita Park last November and a second-place finish to Tapiture in the Southwest Stakes (G2) last month.
I look for Strong Mandate to be competitive in this race but he’ll have to improve off of his performance in the Southwest Stakes (G3) if he is going to turn the tables on Tapiture.
Trainer John Sadler ships Kobe’s Back (7-2) in from California in hopes of earning 50 precious Derby points for the owners C R K Stables. Kobe’s back comes into this race with a 2-1-0 record in four starts, including a 5¼-length win in the 7-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park in February.
 Kobe’s Back has yet to win an 8½ furlong stakes race and his only attempt to accomplish that was a 10th-place finish in the CashCall Futurity (G1) at Betfair Hollywood Park last December. However, Kobe’s Back has the breeding to handle the stretch out in distance.
 Flatter, the sire of Kobe’s Back, was a decent middle-distance horse who competed, mostly, in maiden and allowance races and in his only stakes start he finished third in the 8½-furlong Washington Park Handicap (G2). But in six starts, Flatter compiled a 4-0-1 record and was a winner from 7½-furlongs to 9-furlongs.
Well Decorated, the damsire of Kobe’s Back, was a multiple graded-stakes winner who compiled a 6-4-2 record in 16 starts. Well Decorated was competitive mostly in sprints but he was able to carry his speed to a second-place finish in the 9-furlong Flamingo Stakes (G1).
A recent bullet work out at Santa Anita Park could have Kobe’s Back ready to run a good race and I look for him to be competitive.
Another west-coast invader is Hoppertunity (10-1) who ships in from California for Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert and owners Karl Watson, Michael Pegram and Paul Weitman.
The Rebel will be the second start in stakes competition for Hoppertunity who, in his last race, finished fourth in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds Race Course. Hoppertunity comes into the Rebel (G2) with a 1-0-0 record in three starts and to be competitive, he’ll need to return to the form of his maiden win at Santa Anita in January where he ran a mile in the decent time of 1:36.94.
Baffert makes a jockey switch to Mike Smith who’s won the Rebel three times and is tied with Pat Day and Larry Snyder for the most jockey wins.
In recent years Baffert had good fortune in the Rebel with victories by Lookin at Lucky (2010), The Factor (2011) and Secret Circle 2012). However, Hoppertunity is not, yet, of the same caliber as those horses when they competed in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and he’ll have to improve his game if he is going to be competitive on the Derby Trail.

*****

Under the new scoring system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine eligibility for horses to enter the Derby starting gate, the winner of the Rebel Stakes (G2) will receive 50 points while second-place will yield 20 points, the third-place finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5 points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:

2014 KENTUCKY DERBY LEADERBOARD

Individual Leaders ranking, total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings

1. Samraat, 60, Rick Violette, Jr., $450,000
2. Intense Holiday, 53, Todd Pletcher, $327,500
3. Wildcat Red, 50, Jose Garrofalo, $410,000
4. Ring Weekend, 50, Graham Motion, $210,000
5. California Chrome, 50, Art Sherman, $182,250
6. Midnight Hawk, 32, Bob Baffert, $144,000
7. Albano, 24, Larry Jones, $150,000
7. Uncle Sigh, 24, Gary Contessa, $150,000
9. Tapiture, 22, Steve Asmussen, $300,738
10. Vinceremos, 20, Todd Pletcher, $190,000
11. Vicar’s in Trouble, 20, Mike Maker, $160,000
12. General A Rod, 20, Mike Maker, $140,000
13. Havana, 14, Todd Pletcher, $660,000
14. Cairo Prince, 14, Kiaran McGlaughlin, $470,000
15. Honor Code, 14, Shug McGaughey, $340,000
16. Kristo, 14, John Sadler, $56,000
17. Tamarando, 12, Jerry Hollendorfer, $490,000
18. Bond Holder, 11, Doug O’Neill, $333,000
19. Rise Up, 10, Tom Amoss, $786,633
20. We Miss Artie, 10, Todd Pletcher, $242,000