The
“Road To The Kentucky Derby” travels to Hot Springs, Arkansas today where Hall
of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert will send the 3-2 morning-line favorite Super Ninety Nine and Den’s
Legacy (8-1)
to the starting gate in the 53rd running of the $600,000 Rebel
Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn race track.
Baffert
has won the last three editions of the Rebel Stakes (G2) and it appears that he
has a legitimate contender in Super Ninety Nine who last month, at this track,
streaked in the slop to an 11¼-length romp of the Southwest Stakes (G3).
The
outside post position should not be a problem for Super Ninety Nine who has
good speed and the ability to carry that speed over a route of ground. He’s the
horse to beat and a couple of nice workouts, including a bullet, could have him
ready to run another good race.
We’ve
seen several races on this year’s trail where speed was overcome at the wire by
long-shot closers and the Rebel Stakes is chuck full of speed. Two long shots I
like in this race that will be closing in the stretch are Treasury Bill (5-1) and Stormy Holiday (30-1), and I’ll be using them with Super Ninety
Nine in my exotic wagers.
Treasury Bill comes into the race with a
second-place finish in the San Vicente Stakes (G2) and 1-1-1 record in three
starts. He’s yet to run in a route race, but his pedigree indicates that he
will not have a problem stretching out to 8½-furlongs and he should perform
better as the races get longer.
Lemon Drop Kid, the sire of Treasury Bill, compiled a 2-2-1
record in six starts as a 2-year-old including a win in the Belmont Futurity
Stakes (G1) and a second-place finish in the Champagne Stakes (G1). As a
3-year-old, Lemon Drop Kid finished ninth in the Kentucky Derby but went on to
win the Belmont Stakes (G1) and later that summer, he won the Travers Stakes
(G1).
Menifee, the damsire of Treasury Bill,
was a tough competitor that compiled a 4-1-0 record in five starts en route to
a second-place finish by a neck to Charismatic in the 1999 Kentucky Derby. Two
weeks later in the Preakness Stakes (G1), Menifee lost to Charismatic again by
1½-lengths. Menifee finished eighth in the Belmont Stakes (G1) and went on to
wrap up his career with a win in the Haskell Invitational Handicap (G1), a
third-place finish in the Travers Stakes (G1) and a second-place finish in the
Super Derby (G1).
Wow
Me Free, the
dam of Treasury Bill, was placed in multiple graded stakes races and she also won
the 9-furlong Next Move Handicap (G3), and the 10-furlong Ladies Handicap. Triple
Wow, the third
dam of Treasury Bill, also was placed in multiple graded stakes races and won
the Next Move Handicap (G3). In addition, the tail-female line of Treasury Bill
is reinforced by the Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval and the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Coastal and Sir
Ivor.
I
look for Treasury Bill to be competitive in the stretch out, and a recent
bullet workout at Betfair Hollywood Park could have him ready to run a good
race.
Stormy
Holiday has yet to run at the distance of today’s race. He’s making a step up
in class, and on paper he looks like toss. He’s slow from the start and trails
in last in most of his races. But I’ve watched replays of those races and in
each one he’s made up good ground in the stretch and appears that he wants to run
farther.
In
the one-mile Smarty Jones Stakes he finished fourth and was beaten by five
lengths. He followed that with another fourth-place finish in the Gazebo Stakes
but was only 2¾-lengths shy of victory.
I
don’t know the connections of Stormy Holiday have kept in sprints, mostly.
But his pedigree indicates that he should do well as the races get longer.
Harlan’s Holiday, the sire of Stormy Holiday, was a precocious
colt and good middle-distance runner that was 4-2-0 in six starts as a two year
old winning the Iroquois Stakes (G3), Miller Genuine Draft Cradle Stakes,
Cleveland Kindergarten Stakes and the Hoover Stakes.
As
a 3-year-old, Harlan’s Holiday finished second in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and
Fountain of Youth Stakes (G1). He followed up with a win in the Florida Derby
(G1) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and went into the 2002 Kentucky Derby as the
6-1 favorite but finished seventh in a field of 18.
Thunder Gulch, the
damsire of Stormy Holiday, won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida
Derby (G1) en route to winning the 1995 Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes (G1).
Stormy
Holiday recently fired his first bullet workout which is what I like to see in
a young colt that is stepping up in class. He could be ready to run a good race
and, perhaps, return a good price.
Since
finishing fourth in the CashCall Futurity last December, Oxbow won the Le Comte
Stakes (G3) in an 11½-length romp. He followed that with a narrow loss in the
Risen Star Stakes (G2), finishing in fourth place, one-half length shy
of victory.
In
both of those races, Oxbow ran on the lead, and that’s fine if you have the
speed to carry you over a route of ground. But, I’m so sure just how far Oxbow
wants to run and his style of racing could be severely tested today.
With
10 career starts, Den’s Legacy is one of the most seasoned colts in this race
and he’s been competitive compiling a 2-5-1 record. But Garrett Gomez, the
jockey that knows him best and rode him in six of those races, has been tabbed to
ride Delhomme and jockey Robby Albarado picks up the mount. Den’s Legacy still
could be competitive. But he likes to race near the lead and I don’t like to
see the jockey switch.
Delhomme
has not raced since narrowly losing the 9-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2) last
November, finishing in third-place three-quarters of a length shy of victory.
Both the first and second-place finishers in that race – Overanalyze and
Normandy Invasion – bombed in their 3-year-old debuts and unless Delhomme is a
super horse, I can’t see him with the win today.
The
First Samurai colt,
Carve, comes into today’s race undefeated in two starts at Oaklawn. Both starts
were at 8½-furlongs but the finishing times were slow and Carve is stepping up
in class. Carve has a very good pedigree but the question is if he is fast enough
to be competitive.
If
Carve looks good in the post parade he may be worthy of a wager.
*****
Under
the new scoring system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine eligibility
for horses to enter the Derby starting gate, the winner of the Rebel Stakes (G2)
will receive 50 points while second-place will yield 20 points, the third-place
finisher will receive 10 points and the fourth-place finisher will receive 5
points. Here’s a look at the current top 20 list:
Kentucky
Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated
March 9, 2013)
Individual Leaders ranking,
total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1
= Vyjack, 50, Rudy Rodriguez, $405,000
2
= Orb, 50, Shug McGaughey III, $240,000
3
= Verrazano, 50, Todd Pletcher, $210,000
4
= Hear The Ghost, 50, Jerry Hollendorfer, $195,400
5
= Flashback, 30, Bob Baffert, $180,000
6
= Goldencents, 29, Doug O’Neill, $758,000
7
= Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000
8
= Java’s War, 22, Ken McPeek, $201,772
9
= Falling Sky, 20, John Terranova II, $157,500
10
= West Hills Giant, 20, John Terranova II, $89,000
11
= Code West, 20, Bob Baffert, $80,000
12
= Oxbow, 16, D. Wayne Lukas, $196,000
13
= Dynamic Sky, 13, Mark Casse, $289,168
14
= Speak Logistics, 11, Eddie Pleasa, Jr., $52,500
15
= Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600
16
= Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher, $308,381
17
= Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse, $292,374
18
= Den’s Legacy, 10, Bob Baffert, $265,000
19
= Power Broker, 10, Bob Baffert, $210,000
20
= Super Ninety Nine, 10, Bob Baffert, $200,000
Kentucky
Derby 2013 Leaderboard
(Updated
March 16, 2013)
Individual Leaders ranking,
total points, Trainer, Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1
= Will Take Charge, 60, D. Wayne Lukas, $512,971
2
= Vyjack, 50, Rudy Rodriguez, $405,000
3
= Orb, 50, Shug McGaughey III, $240,000
4
= Verrazano, 50, Todd Pletcher, $210,000
5
= Hear The Ghost, 50, Jerry Hollendorfer, $195,400
6
= Oxbow, 36, D. Wayne Lukas, $316,000
7
= Flashback, 30, Bob Baffert, $180,000
8
= Goldencents, 29, Doug O’Neill, $758,000
9
= Shanghai Bobby, 24, Todd Pletcher, $1,731,000
10
= Java’s War, 22, Ken McPeek, $201,772
11
= Den’s Legacy, 20, Bob Baffert, $325,000
12
= Falling Sky, 20, John Terranova II, $157,500
13
= West Hills Giant, 20, John Terranova II, $89,000
14
= Code West, 20, Bob Baffert, $80,000
15
= Dynamic Sky, 13, Mark Casse, $289,168
16
= Speak Logistics, 11, Eddie Pleasa, Jr., $52,500
17
= Itsmyluckyday, 10, Eddie Plesa, Jr., $393,600
18
= Overanalyze, 10, Todd Pletcher, $308,381
19
= Uncaptured, 10, Mark Casse, $292,374
20
= Super Ninety Nine, 10, Bob Baffert, $218,000
Rebel Stakes (G2), Oaklawn Park,
March 16, 2013
1.
Will Take Charge, 50
2.
Oxbow, 20
3.
Den’s Legacy, 10
4.
Texas Bling, 5
*****
For Derby fans that like statistics, here’s a look at
current list of Kentucky Derby qualifiers, their sire line and damsire line.
Mr. Prospector Sire Line, Damsire Line
Elnaawi, Mr.
Prospector/Northern Dancer
Will Take Charge,
Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer
Palace Malice,
Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer
Code West, Mr. Prospector/Royal Charger
Since 1990, the Mr. Prospector sire line has produced the
most Derby winners with a total of 11. Of those 11, the Fappiano branch has
produced the most with a total of 4 winners. The Mr. Prospector/Northern Dancer
nick has been the most successful with 3 winners. The Mr. Prospector/Royal
Charger nick produced one Derby winner. Of the current qualifiers, Will Take
Charge is the only descendant of Fappiano.
Northern Dancer Sire Line, Damsire Line
Itsmyluckyday,
Northern Dancer/Bold Ruler
Shanghai Bobby,
Northern Dancer/Nasrullah
Speak Logistics,
Northern Dancer/Northern Dancer
Falling Sky,
Northern Dancer/Northern Dancer
Vyjack, Northern
Dancer/Northern Dancer
Den’s Legacy, Northern
Dancer/Northern Dancer
Goldencents,
Northern Dancer/Mr. Prospector
Ive Struck a
Nerve, Northern Dancer/Mr. Prospector
Uncaptured,
Northern Dancer/Royal Charger
West Hills Giant,
Northern Dancer/Royal Charger
Oxbow, Northern Dancer/Man O’ War
Overanalyze,
Northern Dancer/Damascus
Since 1990, the Northern Dancer sire line has produced 3
Derby winners with the damsire line of those winners descending from Northern
Dancer, Royal Charger and Ribot. Broodmare descendants of Northern Dancer have produced
5 Derby winners.
Bold Ruler Sire Line, Damsire Line
Dynamic Sky, Bold
Ruler/Mr. Prospector
Orb, Bold
Ruler/Mr. Prospector
Super Ninety
Nine, Bold Ruler/Mr. Prospector
Flashback, Bold
Ruler/Mr. Prospector
Since 1990, the
Bold Ruler sire line has produced no Derby winners.
Nasrullah Sire Line, Damsire Line
Revolutionary,
Nasrullah/Bold Ruler
Since 1990, the
Blushing Groom, Nasrullah sire line has produced one Derby winner and that was
Animal Kingdom in 2011.
*****
Since 1990, 413 horses have entered the Derby starting gate.
Of those 413, 111 (27 %) were descendants of the Mr. Prospector sire line. Of those 111,
29 (26%) finished in the top four.
Of those 413, 104 (25%) were descendants of the Northern Dancer sire line. Of those
104, 21 (20%) finished in the top four.
Of those 413, 75 (18%) were descendants of the Nasrullah sire line. Of those 75, 15
(20%) finished in the top four.
Of those 413, 37 (9%) were descendants of the Royal Charger sire line. Of those 37,
12 (32% finished in the top four.
Royal Charger
sire line descendants have a better percentage of finishing in the top four and
the colt on this year’s trail that is a descendant of Royal Charger is
Verrazano.
