Santa Anita Derby Racing Roundup

Trainer Mike Harrington is looking to score his first win in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and it appears that he has a good chance with Creative Cause who will go to the starting gate Saturday as the 6-5 morning line favorite in the 75^th running of the $750,000 graded stakes race at Santa Anita Park.

Creative Cause has been on my watch list since last summer and in my 2012 Kentucky Derby Outlook I wrote about him as a young colt with a lot of talent. He’s raced in all the big graded-stakes races on the west coast, never finishing worse than third, and he comes into the Santa Anita Derby with a 4-1-2 record in seven career starts.

In the second start of his 3-year-old season, Creative Cause showed a lot of improvement defeating a very talented Bodemeister by three-quarters of a length in the 8½-furlong San Felipe Stakes (G2).

In his last three races, Creative Cause has earned three straight 102 Brisnet Speed Figures. I’d like to see him increase that number and run the 9-furlong Derby in a time of 1:48 or less.

With $686,000 in graded stakes earnings, Creative Cause has earned his spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate, so he doesn’t need to win but I’m expecting him to win or run a good race and show that he’s continuing to improve and move forward.

Brother Francis (20-1) is another young colt that has the potential to make a big move forward and he’s my long shot pick. I liked him early last year, too, and profiled him in my Derby outlook. But, still a maiden with two seconds and two third-place finishes, Brother Francis has yet to live up to my expectations.

With his trailing at the back of the “herd” running style, I’ve always thought that Brother Francis would perform better at longer races and his pedigree seems to indicate that he could be competitive at any distance.

Lion Heart, the sire of Brother Francis, was a precocious 2-year-old who won the 2003 Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and Hollywood Futurity Stakes (G2). As a 3-year-old, Lion Heart finished second in the San Rafael Stakes (G2), Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1).

The distaff part of the pedigree also has a good mix of speed and stamina and the damsire line is impressive with Classic Champion Thoroughbreds in the first three generations.

Spectrum, the damsire of Brother Francis, won the 8-furlong Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) and finished second in the 10-furlong Prix du Prince d'Orange (Group 3). Rainbow Quest, the second damsire, won the 12-furlong Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1). Blushing Groom, the third damsire, was a French Champion Two-Year-Old Colt, a European Champion Three-Year-Old Miler and winner of the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas).

Viapervita, the dam of Brother Francis, was a listed stakes winner in Germany. Way For Life, the second dam of Brother Francis, was listed stakes placed in Germany. Platini, the sire of Way For Life, was a Group One stakes winner in Germany. His sire, Surumu also sired Acatenango – the damsire of 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.

Brother Francis finished third, narrowly losing by a head, in his 3-year-old debut last month at Santa Anita. The time for the one mile maiden race on the turf was a sharp 1:34.39 and that’s what I like to see in a colt that may have classic potential.

Brother Francis has room to improve in his second start of the season and he’ll need to run the best race of his career as a second-place finish may not give him enough graded stakes earnings to go to Kentucky.

Since winning his 3-year-old debut in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2), I’ll Have Another (5-2) has not raced for more than two months but long layoffs don’t seem to have much of an effect as he won the Lewis as a 43.30 to one long shot off of a four month break. I’ll Have Another ran the 8½-furlongs in a sharp 1:40.84 and earned a 102 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort.

Since then, I’ll Have another has had three straight long distance work outs including a mile work on March 12. Prior the Lewis stakes, trainer Doug O’Neill used a similar work pattern for I’ll Have Another, with two 7-furlong work outs, so he could be ready to run another good race.

With Flower Alley as the sire of I’ll Have Another and Arch as the damsire, the stretch out to 9-furlongs should not be a problem.

Flower Alley was a good middle-distance runner that won Travers Stakes (G1), Lane's End Stakes (G2) and Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) as a 3-year-old. Arch also was a good 3-year-old that won the 10-furlong Super Derby and the 9½-furlong Fayette Breeders' Cup Stakes (G3). In addition, Arch sired Blame, winner of the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and Eclipse Champion Older Male, and he also sired the 2006 Canadian Horse of the Year Arravale.

Liaison (8-1) appears to be the best entry for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert who also has Paynter (12-1) and Blueskiesandrainbows (20-1) entered in the Santa Anita Derby.

Louisiana Derby Racing Roundup

Former Kentucky Governor Brereton C. Jones has high hopes in his coupled entry of Mark Valeski and Mr. Bowling, the 2-1 morning line favorite, to win the 99^th running of the $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) at the Fair Grounds Race Course.

However, the governor’s best prospect for the win is probably Mark Valeski who narrowly lost winning the Risen Star Stakes (G2) by a nose to El Padrino last month at the Fair Grounds.

Both colts are trained by Larry Jones who won the Louisiana Derby in 2009 with Friesan Fire.

I liked Mark Valeski in the Risen Star and I like him in today’s race too. Since that race, Mark Valeski has been working out good and a bullet work out on March 20 could have him ready to run a good race.

Proud Citizen, the sire of Mark Valeksi, won the Lexington Coolmore Stakes (G2) en route to a second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Fortunate Prospect, the damsire of Mark Valeski, is also the damsire of Musket Man who proved to be a good middle-distance runner that finished third in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1).

The tail-female line (family A1) of Mark Valeski also has some good influence. Silver Fog, the fourth dam of Mark Valeski, was the fourth dam of Kentucky Derby winner Gato Del Sol and the line traces to Ballet who was the ancestress of the classic champions Exterminator and Regret.

A long shot I like in this race is Fire Alarm (20-1) who has shown steady improvement since finishing third in his 3-year-old debut at the Fair Grounds in February. In that race, Fire Alarm was part of a coupled entry with Tiz Moe and the pair went off as the even-money favorite. Tiz Moe finished second, beating Fire Alarm by 2¼-lengths.

In March, the pair was made the even-money favorite in another race at the Fair Grounds but this time Fire Alarm turned the tables on his stable mate and beat Tiz Moe by a neck after a gutsy duel in the final yards of the race.

With Fusaichi Pegasus as his sire and Tiznow as the damsire, Fire Alarm should run better as the races get longer.

Miguel Mena was in the irons for Fire Alarm’s first win as a 3-year-old and he returns for today’s mount. Fire Alarm has room to improve in his third start of the season and another move forward will make him very competitive in today’s race.

Cigar Street (7-2) has become the “buzz horse” after his 13¾-length victory in an 8½-furlong maiden race at the Fair Grounds earlier this month. Cigar Street earned a 100 Brisnet Speed Figure for his maiden win which is one digit shy of the 101 that Mark Valeski earned for his performance in the Risen Star.

One never knows how these young colts will fare after an impressive maiden win but trainer Stephen Margolis must have a lot of confidence in Cigar Street’s ability to improve and move forward.

With Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense as his sire, Deputy Minister as the damsire and Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew as the sire of the second dam, Cigar Street should like the stretch out to 9-furlongs. In addition, Cigar Street's second dam Solar Slew was also the dam of the outstanding Thoroughbred Cigar.

If Cigar Street moves forward off of his maiden win he should be competitive in today’s race.

Honorable mention goes to Z Dager (8-1) who finished third to El Padrino and Mark Valeski in the Risen Star. Since finishing sixth in his maiden debut at Churchill Downs last October, Z Dager has been competitive, finishing in the money in three previous races.

A bullet work out at the Fair Grounds on March 19 – the only bullet fired by Z Dager – could have him ready to run a good race.

Florida Derby Stakes Racing Roundup

Trainer Michael Matz will send the talented Union Rags to the starting gate today as the prohibitive 6-5 morning line favorite in the 63^rd running of the $1 million Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park.

A head loss to Hansen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs last fall is the only blemish on Union Rags’ sterling record of four wins in five starts with an 18¼-length winning margin.

Three of Union Rags’ five career starts boast triple digit Brisnet Speed Figures including a 103 speed figure he earned in his debut as a 3-year-old in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park in February.

Union Rags is the deserving favorite and looms as the horse to beat but he may not have it so easy in the Florida Derby (G1) if El Padrino (2-1) repeats the form of his last two races.

If you are a speed handicapper, El Padrino is the best colt on the trail with a whopping 111 Brisnet Speed Figure that he earned in his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream Park in January. He followed that performance with a 101 speed figure in a gutsy stretch duel with Mark Valeski in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at the Fair Grounds in February.

In five career starts, El Padrino has never finished out of the money. His worst placing was a third-place finish in the Remsen Stakes (G2) last fall at Aqueduct where he narrowly missed first-place honors by three-quarters of a length.

Pulpit, the sire of El Padrino, won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G2) as a 3-year-old and sired the 2010 Florida Derby winner Ice Box.

At 8-1 morning line odds, News Pending appears to be the best looking long shot. After four previous attempts, News Pending finally broke his maiden running 9-furlongs on the turf at Gulfstream Park last December. He followed that with two second-place finishes in February, also at Gulstream Park, including a four-length loss to Union Rags in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2).

Harlan’s Holiday, the sire of News Pending, was a good middle-distance runner and he won the 2002 edition of the Florida Derby.

Take Charge Indy (5-1) showed a lot of improvement making his 3-year-old debut in January at Gulfstream Park where he finished second to El Padrino and earned a 109 Brisnet Speed Figure. Prior to that, since his impressive maiden debut win by 6½-lengths last July, Take Charge Indy struggled as a 2-year-old competing in stakes competition.

A. P. Indy, the sire of Take charge Indy, sired the 2004 Florida Derby winner Friends Lake and he is also the grandsire of the Florida Derby winners Ice Box (2010) and Dialed In (2011).

Take Charge Indy has room to improve in his second start of the season and another move forward will make him competitive in today’s race.

Sunland Derby Stakes Racing Roundup

Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert is flush with promising 3-year-olds in his stable but says he “desperately” needs graded stakes earnings if any of them will make it to the Kentucky Derby.

Later today, Baffert will have an opportunity to get the important graded stakes money he needs when he sends Castaway and Stirred Up to the starting gate in the 10^th running of the $800,000 Sunland Derby (G3) at Sunland Park.

Castaway is the 2-1 morning line favorite while Stirred Up was installed as an 8-1 long shot. Both are late-maturing young colts and I like them best in this race. Of the two, Stirred Up has the more impressive pedigree.

After five previous attempts, in January Castaway finally broke his maiden in his debut as a 3-year-old and he could be improving at just the right time of year.

In his maiden win, Castaway led from gate-to-wire and won by 2¼-lengths covering the 8½-furlongs in a very nice time of 1:41.83. His time for the mile was 1:35.19 and for that effort he earned a 102 Brisnet Speed Figure.

A month later at Oaklawn Park, Castaway followed up his maiden win with a 3¾-length victory in the one mile Southwest Stakes (G3) and a repeat of the form he showed in his two previous wins will make him tough to beat in today’s race.

Stirred Up did not race as a 2-year-old but since his second-place finish in his maiden debut in January, he’s finished third in one mile maiden race at Santa Anita Park on February 11 and finally broke his maiden at the same racetrack running 8½-furlongs in 1:43 flat on March 3.

In his maiden win, Stirred Up trailed near the rear of the “herd” for most of the race but I like how he took the lead in the stretch to gain the victory. Here’s the chart call:

STIRRED UP between horses early, settled inside then a bit off the rail, continued outside a rival leaving the backstretch, moved up outside leaving the second turn and three deep into the stretch, gained the lead in midstretch and gamely prevailed under urging.

His Brisnet Speed Figure’s – 93, 90 and 93 - are in the high range I like to see in a promising young colt and his pedigree indicates that he may have classic potential.

In the first three generations, four of the seven stallions in the pedigree – Lemon Drop Kid, Kingmambo, Seattle Slew and Summer Squall were Classic Champion Thoroughbreds. In addition, the dam of Kingmambo, Miesque, was also a classic winner of the Dubai Poule D'essai Des Poulains (Group 1).

Quiet American, the damsire of Stirred Up, is a descendent of the Fappiano branch of Mr. Prospector which has produced numerous classic winners and he also sired the 1998 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1) winner Real Quiet.

The distaff influence in the pedigree is also impressive with several important lines, most notably, the tail-female line of Missy Baba – a Matriarch of the Turf and the fourth dam of Stirred Up’s sire Lemon Drop Kid and dam Summer Delight. Missy Baba is also a tail-female descendant of Summer Squall – the sire of Stirred Up’s second dam Cap Rouge.

I’ll be watching with keen interest to see if Stirred Up makes another move forward on the trail.

Ender Knievel (6-1) and Isn’t He Clever (4-1) also look like they could be competitive in today’s race.

Ender Knievel finally broke his maiden, after three previous attempts, running a mile in his 3-year-old debut at Gulfstream Park on February 5. Ender Knievel led from gate-to-wire and won impressively by 7¾-lengths. He has room to improve in his second start of the season and another move forward will make him competitive in today’s race.

In six career starts, Isn’t He Clever has only been off the board once and he boasts a 4-1-0 record. His worst performance was a fifth-place finish in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita Park on February 4. Later that month, He followed that effort with a 1¾-length victory in the Borderland Derby at Sunland Park.

Since then, Isn’t He Clever fired a bullet work out at Sunland Park and he could be ready to run a good race.

Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes Roundup

Heavy Breathing is not nominated to the Kentucky Derby but a win today in the $500,000 Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (G3) could, perhaps, put Starlight Stable back on the trail after their Derby hopes were dashed earlier this year when their 3-year-old star Algorithms was sidelined with an injury.

Installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite, the undefeated Heavy Breathing has never run in a stakes race but he comes into the Vinery off two victories with a combined 12-length win margin.

A son of Giant’s Causeway, Heavy Breathing has a nice pedigree and his Brisnet Speed Figure’s - 91 and 90 - are in the high range I like to see in a young colt that may have potential.

As a 2-year-old, Giant’s Causeway was undefeated in three starts (all at 7-furlongs) winning the Group 3 Futurity Stakes and the Group 1 Prix de la Salamandre Stakes. As a 3-year-old, Giant’s Causeway was 6-4-0 in 10 starts, winning from 7- to 10-furlongs and he was the 2000 Cartier Racing Awards European Horse of the Year.

In his last race, Heavy Breathing drew away to a 4¼-length win but finished the 9-furlongs in slow 1:51.23. However, Heavy Breathing appears to be improving with each race and another move forward will make him competitive with this group.

Went The Day Well (4-1) is owned trained by the same connections that won last year’s Vinery with Animal Kingdom (my pick to win the Kentucky Derby), however, another horse owned and trained by those same connections – Howe Great – may have classic potential. His performance in winning the Palm Beach Stakes (G3) put him at the top of my Derby list and I’ll have more on that later in a future blog.

Went The Day Well is an improving young colt that started his racing career in England where he had two back-to-back second-place finishes. In his American debut, Went The Day Well finished off the board with a fourth-place finish and earned a 92 speed figure for that effort. He followed that race with a first-place finish and earned a 93 speed figure for his maiden win.

With the influence of Proud Citizen as the sire and Tiznow as the damsire, Went The Day Well has a pretty good pedigree for route racing and if he continues to improve and move forward he should be competitive in today’s race.

A long shot I like in this race is the maiden Coach Royal (15-1) who struggled as a 2-year-old but finished nicely in his last two races and could be ready to run a good race. And his pedigree is pretty awesome, too, with Lemon Drop Kid as his sire and A. P. Indy as the damsire.

Coach Royal narrowly missed breaking his maiden in his last two races by half a length and if he repeats that form he’ll be competitive.

Russian Greek is young colt I’ve liked in previous races and he looks like an appealing long shot at 10-1 morning line odds. He finished off the board in his last race with a fifth-place finish in the El Camino Real Derby (G3) and trainer Jerry Hollendorfer adds blinkers for today’s race.

Russian Greek was also sired by Giant’s Causeway and his damsire is the Kentucky Derby winner Grindstone. If Russian Greek returns to the form he showed in winning the California Derby, he’ll be competitive in today’s race.