It's All Or Nothing For Most In 87th Edition of Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

The 87^th running of the $750,000 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1) Saturday at Keeneland appears to be wide open with a lot of Gulfstream Park and Fair Grounds shippers coming to town in hopes of getting enough graded earnings to run in the Kentucky Derby.

Only the top 20 horses with the most graded stakes earnings will get into the Derby starting gate and Santiva, the 3-1 morning line favorite, is currently ranked 18^th with $240,254.

Santiva could use some insurance and the third-place purse of $75,000 would guarantee him a place in the Derby starting gate. The remaining 11 entrants need the first-place purse of $450,000 to run in the Derby (see chart at end of story).

Trainer Eddie Kenneally will try to score his first win in the Blue Grass when he sends Santiva to the starting gate. The race will be the second start of the year for Santiva who was a 1½ -length runner-up to Mucho Macho Man in the Risen Star Stakes (G2) in February at the Fair Grounds.

Santiva has room to improve off of his performance in the Risen Star but I am concerned about the 56-day layoff.

Going into the Risen Star, Santiva fired a bullet work out on February 12 but since the race his work outs have been lackluster and I don’t know if a sharp work out on April 9 is enough to earn him the win. If I use Santiva in my wagers it will be on the bottom of the exotics.

Three long shots I like are Crimson China (10-1), Brilliant Speed (6-1) and Joe’s Blazing Aaron (12-1). And I especially like Crimson China and Brilliant Speed as potential win candidates.

Trained by Graham Motion, Crimson China has never finished worse than second and he comes into the race with an impressive 2-2-0 record in four starts.

As a 2-year-old, Crimson China raced in England but was shipped to America and made his 3-year-old debut winning a 9-furlong allowance race on the turf at Gulfstream Park in February. Crimson China came back in March and finished a 2-length runner up to Swift Warrior in the 8½-furlong Rushaway Stakes at Turfway Park.

Here’s the chart call: CRIMSON CHINA broke slowly and was unhurried into stride, made a sweeping move circling five wide, finished full of run but was left with too much to do.

The track favored front runners that day and Crimson China, who trailed in last, was gaining in the final strides on Swift Warrior who led from gate to wire. The stretch out in the Blue Grass to 9-furlongs should be more to Crimson China’s liking and I look for him to be competitive.

Brilliant Speed struggled as a 2-year-old and finally broke his maiden on his fifth attempt winning an 8½-furlong maiden race on the turf at Tampa Bay Downs last December.

But as a 3-year-old, Brilliant Speed has shown vast improvement narrowly losing by a nose his stakes debut in the one mile Dania Beach Stakes at Gulfstream Park in January. A month later at Gulfstream, Brilliant Speed suffered another narrow defeat finishing third, just a half-length shy of first, in the Hallandale Beach Stakes.

That’s the kind of improvement I like to see in a colt at this time of year and with Dynaformer as his sire, Brilliant Speed should like the stretch out to 9-furlongs.

With two narrow defeats this year, the third time could, perhaps, be the charm for Brilliant Speed to pull off the upset win in the Bluegrass and stamp his ticket to Churchill Downs.

Joe’s Blazing Aaron also struggled as a 2-year-old, breaking his maiden on his fourth attempt in a 6-furlong sprint at Calder Race Course. His 3-year-old debut was not much better when he was bumped hard in the stretch of a one mile allowance race Gulfstream Park and eased.

But since that race, Joe’s Blazing Aaron has put together two nice back-to-back wins, going gate to wire, in route races including a win in the 9-furlong Palm Beach Stakes (G3). Joe’s Blazing Aaron makes his debut for new trainer Michael Maker and picks up Garrett Gomez as his jockey.

If Joe’s Blazing Aaron runs like he did in the Palm Beach Stakes, he will be tough to beat in the Blue Grass.

Graded earnings of Blue Grass entrants:

1. Newsdad, $0

2. King Congie, $0

3. Santiva, $240,254

4. Joe’s Blazing Aaron, $90,000

5. Brilliant Speed, $0

6. Sensational Slam, $400

7. Twinspired, $47,500

8. Willcox Inn, $139,000 (may get in with 2^nd place purse $150,000)

9. Wilkinson, $75,000

10. Praetereo, $0

11. Crimson China, $0

12. Queensplatekitten, $30,000

Illinois Derby Racing Roundup

The 54^th running of the $300,000 Illinois Derby (G3) at Hawthorne Race Course appears to be wide open with shippers coming in from all points of the compass and several of the 12 horses entered could step up to claim first-place honors.

Trainer Kathleen O’Connell sends Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Watch Me Go to the starting gate as the lukewarm 7-2 morning line favorite. Watch Me Go currently is ranked 18^th on the Kentucky Derby (G1) graded earnings list with $232,500 in graded stakes earnings and a win today would guarantee him a spot in the Derby starting gate.

Of the Derby entrants, Watch Me Go is one of the most seasoned and he has put together a string of nice runs in his last three races with a third-place finish in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) and a win in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). If Watch Me Go repeats his Tampa Bay Derby performance he should be competitive.

Trainer Albert Stall moves Sour (6-1) up in class and ships him in from the Fair Grounds. In three starts, Sour has never finished worse than second and he appears to be a horse with potential.

With Lemon Drop Kid as his sire, the 9-furlong Derby should be well within the scope of Sour and he has room to improve in his fourth start of the year. I look for him to be competitive.

Three long shots I like are Lagoon Of Diamonds (15-1), Zoebear (10-1) and Southern Sculptor (12-1).

Since moving to the stable or Kelly Ackerman and racing at Mountaineer Casino Racetrack and Resort Lagoon Of Diamonds has improved his racing game posting a second and two first-place finishes in sprints.

On paper, Lagoon Of Diamonds looks like he would be most competitive racing in sprints but his pedigree suggests that he may be able to extend his speed farther. His sire Encosta de Lago was a champion miler in Australia but his grandsires Fairy King and Machiavellian were stamina influences.

Fairy King sired Helissio, winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (1996), and Machiavellian sired Dubai World Cup winner Street Cry (2002). He also is the grandsire of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Street Sense (2007) and the Horse of the Year Zenyatta (2010).

Owner and breeder Charles Fipke obviously believes that Lagoon Of Diamonds can stretch his speed to 9-furlongs and he might be in the know. He was the owner and breeder of Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) winner Tale of Ekati (2008).

So, at double-digit odds, I’m willing use Lagoon Of Diamonds in my wagers.

Trainer Scott Becker moves Zoebear up in class and ships him in from Oaklawn Park. In five starts, Zoebear has yet to break his maiden but he’s only been off the board once and he comes into the race with three second-place finishes and one third-place finish.

Zoebear’s last two races have been decent and a recent bullet indicates that he could be ready for a break-out race.

Trainer Eric Guillot ships Southern Sculptor in from Santa Anita and he gets an honorable mention here. He has yet to break his maiden but in his last race he finished second to Midnight Interlude who I like in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Southern Sculptor has room to improve in his third start of the year and whether I use him in my wagers will depend a lot on how he looks in the post parade.

Wood Memorial Stakes Roundup

For many racing fans, Uncle Mo is the early Kentucky Derby favorite and when he enters the starting gate Saturday as the 1-5 morning line favorite in the $1 million Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) trainer Todd Pletcher will be looking for his second win in the coveted race.

Pletcher won the Wood last year with the highly-regarded Eskendereya but Uncle Mo, who is undefeated in four starts, is even more highly regarded and in some circles he has been compared to Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew who was undefeated in five starts before he won the Wood Memorial in 1977.

I like Uncle Mo and there is no doubt that he is talented. He showed brilliance as a 2-year-old when he won the one-mile Champagne Stakes (G1) last October but his 3-year-old debut in the Timely Writer Stakes was not that impressive. With the Wood as his last race before the Kentucky Derby, I’d like to see Uncle Mo run a strong race.

Seattle Slew won the Wood by 3¼- lengths in a time of 1:49.60. Bellamy Road ran the fastest time, setting a new stakes record of 1:47.16, and won by 17½ -lengths. So, a win in open-lengths by Uncle Mo in that time range would give me a lot more confidence about him going into the Derby.

I wrote about Uncle Mo in 2011 Kentucky Derby Outlook last December and I’ve been anxiously waiting to see him run at 9-furlongs.

Here’s what I wrote last December:

Uncle Mo, undefeated in three starts, most likely will top everyone’s top ten. He’s already proven to be exceptional with a combined 23¼ - length margin of victory in previous starts and two grade one wins in the Champagne Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He probably will be selected as the juvenile Eclipse winner and the early 2011 Derby favorite.

I have no doubt that Uncle Mo will probably be a fierce competitor up to 9-furlongs. However, it remains to be seen how competitive he will be racing beyond that distance.

Indian Charlie, Uncle Mo’s sire, was a fierce competitor and winner of the 1998 Santa Anita Derby but could only manage a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby. Conveyance, a brilliant Indian Charlie colt on last year’s trail, was competitive up to 8½ to 9-furlongs.

To his advantage, Uncle Mo gets some stamina from In Excess, his grandsire, who was a good middle-distance runner that was able to stretch out and set a new track record in the 10-furlong Suburban Handicap. Arch, his damsire, won the 10-furlong Super Derby and sired Blame – recent winner of the Breeders’ Cup Classic and leading candidate, along with Zenyatta, for Horse of The Year honors. (Coincidentally, Zenyatta’s damsire line is the same as Blame’s sire line.) Dixieland Band, the sire of Uncle Mo’s second dam Dixie Slippers, is the damsire of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense.

So, I will be watching, with great interest, to see how well Uncle Mo performs at 9-furlongs.

The Wood is Uncle Mo’s race to lose and that is not very likely. However, heavy favorites have been beaten when it appeared that they had a lock on a race.

I most likely will pass on wagering on the Wood but if I get to feeling lucky at the last moment and if they look good in the post parade, two long shots I like are Duca (20-1) and Norman Asbjornson (15-1).

Both showed promise in their last race but they, and the other horses entered in the Wood, are most likely running for second place honors.

Santa Anita Derby Racing Roundup

Sad news came Thursday with the announcement that the promising Premier Pegasus would not be able to compete in the $1 million Santa Anita Derby (G1) this Saturday due to a hairline fracture in the canon bone of his left foreleg.

Whenever I hear that a horse is off the Derby trail it’s hard not to imagine the worst but sadness turned to relief with the news that the injury was not life-threatening and that the young colt would be okay after a few months of convalescence.

Premier Pegasus had been installed as the 8-5 morning line favorite but the mantle of favoritism now rests upon Jaycito who will go to the starting gate as the 2-1 morning line favorite in 74^th running of the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Jaycito’s only bad race was a seventh-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) last November and he comes into the Derby with an impressive 1-3-0 record in five starts. Jaycito made his 3-year-old debut and first start for trainer Bob Baffert in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) last month where he finished second to Premier Pegasus – beaten by 7¾-lengths.

I’ve always thought that Jaycito would perform better as the races got longer. His sire is Belmont winner Victory Gallop and his damsire is Ascot Knight who was a 10-furlong champion in England. And Baffert has commented that Jaycito is the kind of horse that needs a mile and a quarter.

Baffert knows how to get his horses ready for big races and Jaycito has room for improvement in his second start of the year. I look for him to be competitive.

Anthony’s Cross, the 4-1 third-choice, has steadily improved since his 3-year-old debut in January when he finished third in the Sham Stakes (G3). He came back in February to win the 9-furlong Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G2) in a time of 1:48.63.

Anthony’s Cross earned a 93 Brisnet Speed Figure for his performance in the Lewis and if he repeats that effort he will be tough in the Derby. Since his last race, Anthony’s Cross has been working out good and two back-to-back bullet works could have him ready to run a huge race.

A long shot I like is Midnight Interlude (20-1) who is also trained by Baffert. I don’t know if Midnight Interlude will stay at 20-1 but with the scratch of Premier Pegasus I believe he has a good chance at winning.

In looking at his pedigree it appears that Midnight Interlude has a good mix of speed and stamina. His sire was the speedy War Chant who won the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) and was able to stretch his speed out to 9-furlongs when he lost the 2000 Santa Anita Derby by one length to The Deputy.

Groom Dancer, the damsire of Midnight Interlude, was a multiple Group Stakes winner in France who was most competitive running at one mile to 11-furlongs. Most of the races he won were at a distance of 9-furlongs and farther. Triple Crown winner Secretariat is the sire of the third dam and First Landing, the sire of the fourth dam, also sired Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Riva Ridge.

Other notable stamina influences in the pedigree of Midnight Interlude include Blushing Groom, Northern Dancer, Lyphard, Kris S., Roberto and Mr. Prospector.

Midnight Interlude finished third in his debut in January and I like the way he has steadily improved his performance in his last two races. He broke his maiden last month in 8½ -length romp on a wet, fast track going a mile in a nice 1:36.25.

A bullet work out on April 4 and Midnight Interlude could be ready to pull off an upset at a nice price.

Trainer Steve Asmussen already has Astrology going to the Kentucky Derby (G1) but he’s hoping that a win by Silver Medallion (7-2) will get him there too.

Silver Medallion has done most of his racing on turf but he won his 3-year-old debut in the 9-furlong El Camino Real Derby (G3) in February. Silver Medallion won in the relatively slow time of 1:50.45 but he has room to improve in his second start of the season and should be competitive.

Swale Stakes Racing Roundup

Todd Pletcher won the Swale Stakes (G2) in 2000 with Trippi and he’s looking for another win the $150,000 stakes race when he sends Travelin Man to the starting gate today as the 4-5 morning line favorite.

Travelin Man should be tough in the Swale. He won his maiden debut in January by and impressive 7¼-lengths and came back in February with a second-place finish in the Hutcheson Stakes (G2) to the speedy Flashpoint who is running in the Florida Derby (G1).

Since then, Travelin Man has had two sharp work outs including a bullet on March 21 and he should be ready to run another good race.

A long shot I like is Megalith (8-1) who comes into the race with a 1½-length win in the OBS Sprint at the Ocala Training Center last month. Here’s the chart call: MEGALITH was unhurried early, angled out four wide after a half then closed fast along the outside to be up in time.

Megalith covered the 6-furlongs in 1:09.60 with jockey Rajiv Maragh in the saddle and he retains the mount for today’s race.

Trippi is also the sire of Megalith. A sharp work out March 28 and I look for Megalith to be closing at the finish.

Panamanian import Indiano (3-1) is a seasoned colt and he comes into the Swale with an impressive 5-1-0 record in six starts.

Indiano narrowly lost by a half-length his American debut in a sprint race last month at Gulfstream Park. Indiano covered the 6-furlongs in 1:09.37 and earned a 98 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort.

Indiano has room for improvement off of his debut and I look for him to be competitive in the Swale Stakes.