Classic Champion Thoroughbreds

Horse Profiling, The Secret to Motivating Equine Athletes

2012-01-30T10:18:00.003-05:00

I recently heard from the editor that the book Kerry Thomas and I co-authored – Horse Profiling, The Secret to Motivating Equine Athletes – was sent to the printer last week. Kerry and I are now in the stretch drive to publication.

Here's a big thank you to all of our family and friends and the all the folks at Trafalgar Square Books for the encouragement and support along the trail, in our journey into the intimate drama of life in the equine circle.

Kerry and I would also like to give special thanks to HRH Princess Alia al Hussein of the Princess Alia Foundation, US Equestrian Federation Senior Judge, trainer and coach, Thomas Poulin, US Eventing Association Hall-of-Fame inductee Denny Emerson and renowned sport horse trainer Lester Buckley for their glowing tribute and contribution to the book.

What a journey it’s been since Kerry first traveled to Wyoming and Montana in 1989 to study wild horse herds in their natural habitat.

A unique condition – color blindness – led Kerry to catalog the horses he studied by personality type, instead of by coat color, and that led to his development of the Emotional Conformation Profile which is a tool he uses to evaluate horse behavior.

It is no secret that speed, stamina, jumping ability, and athletic prowess depend on the horse’s physical ability to perform – to run, stop, turn, balance, and to be powerful or graceful. However, the world has seen many “great” athletic bodies, human and horse, fail to reach their true potential, while others, perhaps thought to be less great in form and function, reach the pinnacle of their sport or discipline.

In the world of human athletes, we might claim hard work, “grit,” or “heart” as the force greater than muscle that propels them to the top. But the horse doesn’t have performance goals in the way we do, so what is it that motivates one racehorse to leave the rest of the field behind to cross the finish line first?

Kerry discovered that “Emotional Conformation” – not physical conformation – governs equine herd dynamics and that, regardless of breed or career, an Emotional Conformation Profile could dictate in large part the success or failure of the horse in the human environment including performance sports and competition.

Focusing on this research, Kerry began to cultivate ways in which a horse’s “mental capacity” could be identified and then “conditioned” toward a given goal.

Can your racing prospect handle distance? Does your event horse have the “finish” to clear that last enormous cross-country obstacle when his legs are tired? Is your reining horse capable of maintaining focus in the face of large crowds and multiple distractions?

These are the questions Horse Profiling helps answer. Kerry and I hope you enjoy the journey into the intimate drama of life in the equine circle.

*****

Horse Profiling, The Secret to Motivating Equine Ahtletes can be ordered online at this link.

Holy Bull Stakes Racing Roundup

2012-01-29T07:05:00.001-05:00

Hansen, undefeated in three starts and the 2011 Eclipse Champion 2-Year-Old Male, will try to keep his perfect record intact when he goes to the starting gate today in the 25^th running of the $400,000 Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park.

Tagged as the 6-5 morning line favorite, Hansen likes to take the early lead and he’s never been headed in all three of his previous starts. However, with the speedy Algorithms (5-2) and Consortium (3-1) in the starting gate lineup, Hansen will have to improve his game if he’s to retain his undefeated record.

I profiled Algorithms and Consortium in my 2012 Kentucky Derby Outlook and of the six colts entered in today’s race, those two are the ones I’m most interested in and believe may have classic potential.

Algorithms and Consortium are stepping up in class and making their 3-year-old debut in today’s race. However, if they have improved since their 2-year-old season, I look for both to very competitive in the Holy Bull.

Both colts are lightly raced and were sired by Bernardini. Of the two, I’m leaning a little bit toward Algorithms, however, it is still early on the trail to the first Saturday in May.

In just his second start, Algorithms looked impressive coming off of a six-month layoff, to defeat favored Consortium by one length in a 6½-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park on December 16.

Traveling three-wide in third-place for most of the race, Algorithms chased the fast pace set by Seven Kind and Consortium until he rallied in the stretch to take the lead and win with a sharp final time of 1:15.51.

That’s the kind of performance I like to see in a young colt and if Algorithms is anything like his sire, Bernardini, then he shouldn’t have a problem carrying that speed to route racing – especially 10-furlongs.

Bernardini did not race as a 2-year-old but at the age of three, he was a fast colt that won races from a mile to 10-furlongs. Notable races that Bernardini won en route to becoming the 2006 Eclipse Champion Three-Year-Old Male include: Withers Stakes (G3, 8-furlongs), Preakness Stakes (G1, 9½-furlongs), Jim Dandy Stakes (G2, 8½-furlongs), Travers Stakes (G1, 10-furlongs) and the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1, 10-furlongs).

Consortium will have to improve his game too if he’s going to turn the tables on Algorithms who won by a length in their last race. Stalking the pace set by Seven Kind, Consortium travelled comfortably in second-place and took the lead in the stretch but turned it over to Algorithms in the final strides.

Algorithms earned a 100 Brisnet Speed Figure for his win over Consortium and a bullet work on January 23 indicates that Algorithms could be ready to run another good race – he also fired a bullet before his last race.

Last year’s Holy Bull victor, Dialed In, was made the early Kentucky Derby favorite after the race and with champion Hansen in the starting gate it’s a good bet that the winner of today’s race will be early favorite for the 2012 Derby.

Lecomte Stakes Racing Roundup

2012-01-21T08:58:00.002-05:00

Shared Property heads a field of thirteen 3-year-old thoroughbreds today in what appears to be a wide open edition of the 68^th running of the $175,000 Lecomte Stakes (G3) at the Fair Grounds Race Course.

Tagged as the 4-1 morning line favorite, Shared Property has not raced for more than three months and comes into the race off of a 4¾-length loss in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity Stakes at Keeneland last October.

However, if Shared Property returns to his previous form prior to that race, he should be competitive in the Lecomte. Shared Property broke his maiden last July at Ellis Park and then followed that performance with a one-length victory in the Arlington-Washington Futurity Stakes (G3) at Arlington Park in September.

Scat Daddy, the sire of Shared Property, was a precocious 2-year-old colt that won the Champagne Stakes (G1) and Sanford Stakes (G2). As a 3-year-old, Scat Daddy won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1).

Belong To Me, the damsire of Shared Property, was a multiple graded stakes winning sprinter but at stud he sired some notable middle-distance runners such as Forever Together who was a multiple graded-stakes winner with over $2.9 million in career earnings. Belong To Me is also the damsire of Circular Quay, winner of the 2007 Louisiana Derby.

Trainer Todd Pletcher must seem pretty confident about the chances of Dan And Sheila (6-1) to win the Lecomte as he moves the young colt up in class off of his maiden debut win last month at Gulfstream Park. I also like his chances and if Dan And Sheila improves off of that effort, he should be competitive.

More Than Ready, the sire of Dan And Sheila, has made quite a mark with his sons Phelan Ready and Sebring who were champion 2-year-colts in Australia with over $2 million in career earnings. His best runners in America have been the turf-sprinter Regally Ready with over $1 million in career earnings and Pluck, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G2) and Summer Stakes (G3) with $727,290 in career earnings.

Capetown Devil comes into the Lecomte with a perfect undefeated record in three starts – at three different race tracks – for trainer David Carroll and he should be competitive in today’s race. He’s already won at the distance of today’s race when last month at the Fair Grounds, despite losing his footing at the start, Capetown Devil recovered and managed to win by a neck.

Cape Town, the sire of Capetown Devil, won the Florida Derby (G1) and Holy Bull Stakes (G2). His best runner to date has been Bird Town, winner of the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks and Acorn Stakes.

Nureyev, the damsire of Capetown Devil, was a top-class miler and outstanding sire of the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Peintre Celebre, winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, Irish 2,000 Guineas winner Spinning World, and Miesque, winner of the Dubai Poule D'essai Des Pouliches (Group 1) and dam of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred and outstanding sire Kingmambo.

Trainer Albert Stall cuts Seven Lively Sins back in distance after his 8-length loss to Sabercat in the Delta Jackpot Stakes (G3) at Delta Downs and he could be competitive in today’s race. Prior to the Delta Jackpot, Seven Lively Sins had never been out of the money in three starts including a narrow loss by three-quarters length to Motor City in the Iroquois Stakes (G3).

Stormy Atlantic, the sire of Seven Lively Sins, was a sprinter but he has sired some decent middle-distance runners in Get Stormy, Superior Storm, and Stormello to name a few.

Carson City, the damsire of Seven Lively Sins, was also the damsire of Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro and Stormello, winner of the Hollywood Futurity Stakes (G1), Norfolk Breeders’ Cup Stakes (G2).

Pasco Stakes Racing Roundup

2012-01-14T08:43:00.001-05:00

For Oby goes to the starting gate today for trainer Pedro Maestre as the 5-2 morning line favorite in the $100,000 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs racetrack.

For Oby comes into the Pasco with a narrow loss by a nose to Ancient Rome in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park on December 3. But jockey Julio Garcia, who rode For Oby in that race, switches his mount to Seven Kind (8-1) who is a long shot I like in today’s race.

Seven Kind finished third in his last race to Algorithms and Consortium, two promising Bernardini colts I profiled in my 2012 Kentucky Derby Outlook, and if he repeats the form of his last race, he should be competitive.

Adirondack King (4-1) comes into the race with four straight wins at Parx Racing, including a 6-length romp in the Christopher Elser Memorial Stakes, and looks to be very competitive. He also has a good mix of speed and stamina in his pedigree.

Lawyer Ron, the sire of Adirondack King, excelled on the Kentucky Derby trail as a 3-year-old, winning the Southwest Stakes (G3), Risen Star Stakes (G3), Rebel Stakes (G3) and Arkansas Derby (G2). Brocco, the damsire of Adirondack King, won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) and Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Jostle, the dam of Adirondack King, was an outstanding racer with over $1.3 million in career earnings and winner of the Alabama Stakes (G1), Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2), and Cotillion Handicap (G2) during her 3-year-old season.

Prospective (7-2) showed nice progression as a 2-year-old until he finished dead last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs on November 5. If you throw out that race, Prospective has two wins, including a 2-length romp in the Grey Stakes (G3), and a second-place finish for trainer Mark Casse.

A bullet work out on January 1 could indicate that Prospective is ready to run a good race and if he returns to his previous form, he could be competitive in the Pasco.

Malibu Moon, the sire of Prospective, only raced twice until he was retired with a slab fracture. But at stud, Malibu Moon has produced some nice sprint and middle-distance horses such as Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Declan’s Moon and Malibu Mint.

Awesome Again, the damsire of Prospective, was a good middle-distance runner that won the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and earned classic honors by winning the Queen’s Plate Stakes, one of the most prestigious races in Canada.

Good luck with your picks.

California Derby Racing Roundup

2012-01-13T21:28:00.002-05:00

Trainer Michael Machowsky, looking for his first win in the $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields this Saturday, enlists the services of Hall of Fame Jockey Russell Baze to ride Hodge, the 9-5 morning favorite in the 97^th edition of the 8½-furlong stakes race.

Baze and the late Johnny Longden, a Hall of Fame jockey whose career spanned three decades from the 1930’s to the 1950’s, have won the California Derby a record five times. While a good jockey can elevate a horse’s performance, Hodge has not raced in 51 days and this is his first attempt at covering a route of ground.

After stalking the leader in second-place, Hodge held on to finish third 1¾-lengths behind So Brilliant, winner of the 7-furlong Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) at Hollywood Park on November 24. While Hodge may be competitive in the Derby, I’m not so sure 8½-furlongs is his best distance and there are others I like better in this race.

Russian Greek, the 5-2 morning line second choice, comes into the race with a first-place finish in the Gold Rush Stakes at Golden Gate Fields on December 10. I like the grit and determination he showed in that race. Russian Greek rallied from the back of the six-horse field and made a nice surge on the inside rail to get up and win by a neck.

Russian Greek now has two wins and a fifth-place finish in three starts and another move forward off of his last race will make him very competitive.

Russian Greek was sired by Giant’s Causeway, who also sired Battle Force, a young colt I profiled in my 2012 Kentucky Derby Outlook.

As a 2-year-old, Giant’s Causeway was undefeated in three starts (all at 7-furlongs) winning the Group 3 Futurity Stakes and the Group 1 Prix de la Salamandre Stakes. As a 3-year-old, Giant’s Causeway was 6-4-0 in 10 starts, winning from 7- to 10-furlongs and he was the 2000 Cartier Racing Awards European Horse of the Year.

Grindstone, the damsire of Russian Greek, won the Louisiana Derby (G2) and finished second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) en route to victory in the 1996 Kentucky Derby (G1). Grindstone is the sire of the 2004 Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Birdstone and he is the grandsire of the 2009 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Mine That Bird and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Summer Bird.

Alydar, the sire of Russian Greek’s second dam, most likely would have been the 1978 Triple Crown winner if it had not been for the tenacious victor Affirmed whose duels with Alydar on the road to glory are some of the best in racing history.

The tail female line also has some nice influence. Sand Dollar, the dam of Russian Greek, was not much of a racer but second dam Train Robbery was a multiple stakes winner as well as the third dam, Track Robbery, who was a multiple graded stakes winner of races such as the Apple Blossom Handicap (G1) and Spinster Stakes (G1) with over $1 million in career earnings.

Russian Greek is trained by Jerry Hollendorfer who holds a record four wins in the California Derby.

Two long shots I like are Reconstruction (8-1), another entry by Hollendorfer, and Unveiled Heat (12-1).

Reconstruction has never been out of the money in three starts and appears to be one of the more consistent colts among this group. He broke his maiden last time out by 1¼-lengths and another move forward off of that effort should make him competitive.

Reconstruction has never run in a route race, but with Broken Vow as his sire and Dixieland Band as the damsire, he should be able to handle the 8½-furlongs of the Derby.

Broken Vow was a competitive middle-distance runner who won such races as the 9-furlong Philip H. Iselin Handicap (G2) and Ben Ali Stakes (G3) and sired the outstanding middle-distance runner Unbridled Belle who had over $1.9 million in career earnings.

Dixieland Band also was a decent middle-distance runner and the damsire of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense.

Unveiled Heat is the only young colt in the field that has won at 8½-furlongs. He appears to be an improving colt that finally broke his maiden last time out after seven previous attempts. His last two races have been pretty decent and he retains the services of jockey Abel Cedillo who has a 1-2-0 record in four previous mounts on Unveiled Heat.

If Unveiled Heat continues to improve, he could be competitive at a nice price.

Sham Stakes Racing Roundup

2012-01-07T09:26:00.002-05:00

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sends Secret Circle to the starting gate today as the 4-5 morning line favorite in the 12^th running of the $100,000 Sham Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita Park.

Baffert holds the record for the most wins in the Sham with a win by Wild and Wise in 2001 and in 2006 Bob and John took him to the winners circle.

Secret Circle, undefeated in three starts, has yet to run in a route race but he should able to handle the stretch out to a mile. Eddington, the sire of Secret Circle, and damsire Dixieland Band were both decent middle-distance runners and Dixieland Band also is the damsire of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense.

Out of Bounds (5-1) and Longview Drive (8-1) are two longshots I like in this race.

Out of Bounds broke his maiden in his last race going 7-furlongs in 1:23.17, earning a 93 Brisnet Speed Figure for that effort. Another move forward should make him competitive with this group.

Discreet Cat, the sire of Out of Bounds was a speedy colt whose best distance was at a mile but was able to stretch out and win the 8½-furlong UAE Derby. Unbridled’s Song, the damsire of Out of Bounds, was a good middle-distance runner and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1), Florida Derby (G1) and Wood Memorial Stakes (G1).

Unbridled Elaine, the dam of Out of Bounds, also was a good middle-distance runner and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1) with over $1.7 million in career earnings. Unbridled Elaine’s best runner to date has been Etched who also was a good middle-distance runner that earned over a half a million dollars during his racing career.

Etched was sired by Forestry, the grandsire of Out of Bounds.

In five career starts, Longview Drive has never been out of the money and he comes into the race off of a third-place finish in the Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes (G3) at Delta Downs on November 19. Longview Drive made a late, five-wide rally in the Jackpot but it was not enough to coral Sabercat who won by 6½-lengths.

The cut back in today’s race to 8-furlongs may make Longview Drive more competitive and the addition of blinkers by trainer Jerry Hollendorfer may or may not help him to stay more engaged early in the race.

Longview Drive is a full-brother to Pyro who won the Louisiana Derby (G2), Risen Star Stakes (G3) and Northern Dancer Breeders’ Cup Stakes (G3) as a 3-year-old.

***

Two young colts I mentioned in my 2012 Kentucky Derby Outlook are entered on today’s racing card at Gulfstream Park. Unbridled Minister, trained by Kenny McPeak, will make his maiden debut in the sixth race. Discreet Dancer , trained by Todd Pletcher, will make his second career start in in the seventh race.

Count Fleet Racing Roundup

2012-01-07T06:14:00.002-05:00

Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin has high Kentucky Derby hopes for several 3-year-old thoroughbreds in his stable including Alpha, a young colt he’ll send to the starting gate today as the 4-5 morning line favorite in the 37^th running of the $150,000 Count Fleet Stakes at Aqueduct Racetrack.

“We do think about the future with Alpha, and hope he’s a Derby-type horse,” said McLaughlin in an Aqueduct Racetrack news release. “He’s a nice horse.”

I also think that Alpha may have a lot of potential and noted that in my Champagne Stakes Racing Roundup. He lived up to my expectations finishing a respectable second to the speedy Union Rags.

However, his fractious behavior in the starting gate of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) indicates he may have some emotional conformation issues and it gave me cause to take a wait and see approach.

I really like the pedigree of Alpha but I’ve seen several horses with nice pedigrees fail to live up to their breeding. If Alpha lives up to his breeding, he should win the Count Fleet with ease.

A bullet work out on January 2 indicates that Alpha could be ready to run a good race. Only time will tell.

Stephanoatsee (6-1) cuts back in distance from his last outing in the 9-furlong Remsen Stakes (G2) where he finished seventh but was only beaten by 4¼-lengths. Stephanoatsee is a half-brother to Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Shackleford and the cutback should make him more competitive as he previously has a second and first-place finish in two 8-furlong races at Laurel Park.

His Brisnet Speed Figures for his two races at Laurel Park make him competitive with this group and three nice work outs since his last race, including a bullet work on December 24, could have him ready to run a good race.

Speightscity (8-1) and Shkespeare Shaliyah (10-1) are two longshots that could also be competitive in the Count Fleet.

Speightscity won his last race traveling the same route of ground at Aqueduct and a bullet work out on December 29 may also have him primed for a good race.

Shkspeare Shaliyah was most likely outclassed in his last race where he finished ninth in the 8-furlong Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Stakes (G1). But he has a third-place finish and two wins at 8½-furlongs, including the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes, and he should be closing fast at the end to hit the board or maybe win at a nice price.

2012 Kentucky Derby Outlook

2011-12-29T12:37:00.002-05:00

As the year draws to a close, it is once again time to review the pedigrees and past performances of the 2-year-old thoroughbreds to see if I can spot any that may have the potential to become a factor on the 2012 Triple Crown trail.

It’s always a daunting task, but this year the task seems especially daunting as much of my time from August to the end of November was devoted to finishing the book that Kerry Thomas, founder of the Thomas Herding Technique, and I co-authored.

Since November, I’ve been in catch up mode reviewing the pedigrees and past performances of as many young horses as possible in order to narrow my list down to a few I believe may have exceptional talent.

The pedigree is the most important tool I use to determine if a young colt has star potential. In addition, past performances and the will to win are also important factors I look at. However, my friend Kerry is better than I am at measuring the emotional conformation of a horse.

Animal Kingdom was a young colt I especially liked in my 2011 Kentucky Derby Outlook and he was my pick to win the Kentucky Derby. Other young colts of interest included To Honor And Serve, Brethren, Cal Nation and Premier Pegasus.

Unlike last year, with Uncle Mo as the clear-cut early Derby favorite, this year’s crop of 2-year-olds appears to be a group of evenly matched young horses and there are several late bloomers that ran earlier this month that could be a factor on the 2012 trail.

However, five young colts I’m most interested in and will be following in 2012 are Battle Force, Sky Kingdom, Algorithms, Consortium, and Discreet Dancer. It’s tempting to put Battle Force at the top of the list but it is a bit early for that as one never knows how these 2-year-olds will fare at the age of three.

Battle Force reminds me a lot of Eskendereya who was my favorite for the 2010 Kentucky Derby before he was sidelined with an injury.

Much like Eskendereya who was competitive as a 2-year-old, but dominant at the age of three, Battle Force, with a 1-1-1 record in three starts, has been competitive in all of his races and if he continues to move forward he could be a force to reckon with on the Derby trail.

All three of Battle Force’s previous races have been run on the turf at the distance of a mile and his times have been near the magic 1:35 mark which is what I like to see in a young colt that I believe may have classic potential.

Unlike Eskendereya who ran on or close to the lead, Battle Force has run near the back of the herd and closed with a tremendous burst of speed to be competitive. With that running style, I think that a mile is too short and Battle Force will do much better as the races get longer.

I also like the pedigree of Battle Force which is also very similar to the pedigree of Eskendereya. Both were sired by Giant’s Causeway – the 2000 Cartier Racing Awards European Horse of the Year.

The tail-female line of Battle Force also has a feature similar to that of Eskendereya in that all the mares going back four generations were sired by Classic Champion Thoroughbreds: Fusaichi Pegasus, Triple Crown winner Seattle Slew, Damascus and Northern Dancer.

The sires on the tail-female line of Eskendereya are Seattle Slew, Alydar, Northern Dancer and Ribot and while Alydar was not a classic champion, I count him as one when analyzing pedigrees.

The tail-female line of Battle Force is also outstanding. Royal Statute, the fourth dam, is also the third dam of both Pour Moi, winner of the 2011 Epsom Derby, and Lammtarra who won the 1995 Epsom Derby. The tail-female line descends from Echo (Family 22-b) which also produced the Kentucky Derby winners Street Sense (2007) and Count Turf (1951).

Northern Dancer, the sire of Royal Statute, is a tail-female line descendant of Almahmoud, a Matriarch of the Turf and a descendant of Emma (Family 2-d) and that line produced the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Giacomo, Spectacular Bid, Cannonade and Northern Dancer. Almahmoud was the third dam of Cannonade and second dam of Northern Dancer.

So when you have Royal Statute in the pedigree, especially the tail-female line, you have the influence of two very powerful and influential female families.

I also like that John Shirreffs is the trainer of Battle Force. If he lives up to his breeding, Battle Force may have classic potential.

Only time will tell.

Sky Kingdom is also another young colt that I’m very interested in but he has yet to live up to my expectations. However, if he has any potential at all he could be tough on the Derby Trail next year.

He’s in the hands of Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert who knows how to get young horses ready for big races and has schooled Lookin At Lucky, War Emblem, Point Given, Real Quiet and Silver Charm to victory in classic races.

Sky Kingdom is a sire-line descendant of Mr. Prospector and Baffert’s record with colts from that line is exceptional. Lookin At Lucky, War Emblem, Point Given and Real Quiet are all sire-line descendants of Mr. Prospector and since 1990, that line has dominated the Triple Crown Trail producing 10 Kentucky Derby winners: Mine That Bird (2009), Street Sense (2007), Smarty Jones (2004), Funny Cide (2003), War Emblem (2002), Fusaichi Pegasus (2000), Real Quiet (1998), Grindstone (1996), Thunder Gulch (1995) and Unbridled (1990).

Sky Kingdom’s Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile, a tool I use to measure classic potential, is a whopping 107.5 which is the highest of all 2-year-olds I’ve seen this year. Sky Kingdom almost has what I refer to as a perfect “V” pattern pedigree where the stallions of the sire line and tail-female line are Classic Champion Thoroughbreds.

Empire Maker, the sire of Sky Kingdom, won the Belmont Stakes (G1) and grandsire Unbridled won the Kentucky Derby (G1). Kingmambo, the damsire of Sky Kingdom, won the Dubai Poule D'essai Des Poulains (Group 1). Seattle Slew and Secretariat, the sires of the second and third dam, were Triple Crown winners.

The tail-female line is also pretty outstanding. Weekend Surprise, the third dam of Sky Kingdom, is a Reine-de-Course mare and the dam of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner A. P. Indy and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Summer Squall.

Lassie Dear, the fourth dam of Sky Kingdom is also a Reine-de-Course mare and the second dam of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Lemon Drop Kid – sired by Kingmambo.

Missy Baba, the sixth dam of Sky Kingdom, is a Matriarch of the Turf and a tail-female line ancestor of A. P. Indy, Summer Squall and Lemon Drop Kid.

Weekend Surprise, Lassie Dear and Missy Baba are tail-female descendants of Mayonaise (Family 3-l) and the Mayonaise line also produced the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Silver Charm and Triple Crown winner Citation.

Buckpasser, the sire of Sky Kingdom’s fourth dam Lassie Dear, is a tail-female line descendant of La Troienne (Family 1-x) who was a Matriarch of the turf and an influential foundation mare of the tail-female line that produced the Classic Champion Thoroughbreds Super Saver, Smarty Jones, Go For Gin, Sea Hero, Prairie Bayou, Personality and Bimelech.

So, Sky Kingdom also has the influence of two powerful and influential female families in Lassie Dear – his fourth dam – and if he lives up to his breeding, he will be tough on the Derby Trail.

Algorithms, Consortium and Discreet Dancer appear to be late bloomers but they have the speed and pedigree to be factors on the 2012 Derby trail. While it is yet to be seen if they can be competitive at 10-furlongs, the Preakness Stakes (G1), which is a sixteenth of a mile shorter than the Derby, should be well within their range.

In just his second start, Algorithms looked impressive earlier this month, coming off of a six-month layoff, to defeat favored Consortium by one length in a 6½-furlong allowance optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park.

I also like the pedigree of Algorithms. One of the things I look for when evaluating classic prospects is multiple generations of Classic Champion Thoroughbreds and Algorithms has that feature in his sire line with Bernardini, A. P. Indy and Seattle Slew. In addition, both Bernardini and Algorithms were bred on an A. P. Indy-Fappiano, Mr. Prospector nick.

Cryptoclearance, the damsire of Algorithms, was a good middle-distance runner that won the Florida Derby (G1), finished second in the Belmont (G1) and Travers Stakes (G1) and finished third in the Preakness (G1) and Jim Dandy Stakes (G2). As a 4-year-old, Cryptoclearance won the 10-furlong Budweiser-Hawthorne Gold Cup Handicap (G2).

At stud, Cryptoclearance sired Victory Gallop, winner of the 1998 Belmont Stakes (G1).

Avatar, the sire of Algorithms second dam, won the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) and finished second in the Kentucky Derby (G1).

The tail-female line of Algorithms descends from Belvoirina (Family 5-e) and that line produced Belmont winner Gallant Man (1957) and Needles, winner of the 1956 Kentucky Derby and Belmont.

So far, Algorithms is off to a good start and if he continues to move forward he will be tough on the Derby trail.

Consortium is another promising Bernardini colt but he’ll have to improve his game if he’s going to beat Algorithms.

Machiavellian, the damsire of Consortium, is a descendant of Mr. Prospector and nicks with Bernardini much like that of Algorithms damsire Cryptoclearance. Machiavellian is the grandsire of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense and the sire of Street Cry, winner of the 10-furlong Dubai World Cup (Group 1) and the 9-furlong Stephen Foster Handicap (G1).

The tail-female line of Consortium descends from Adelaide (Family 9-h) and that line produced the Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Omar Khayyam (1917) and the Preakness Stakes (G1) winners Aloma’s Ruler (1982), Bee Bee Bee (1972) and Tom Rolfe (1965).

I really like Bernardini as a sire and would not be surprised if he got a Classic Champion Thoroughbred someday. Maybe, this could be the year.

Only time will tell.

There’s not much discreet about Discreet Dancer who won his maiden debut in flamboyant fashion by cruising to a 9¾-length victory in a sprint race at Gulfstream Park on December 3. Discreet Dancer covered the 5½-furlongs in a record time of 1:02.34 and earned a 98 Beyer Speed Figure for that performance.

Another move forward off of that effort should make Discreet Dancer competitive on the 2012 trail.

Discreet Cat, the sire of Discreet Dancer, also was a late bloomer winning his only start as a 2-year-old in a 6-furlong sprint at Saratoga Racecourse. At the age of three, Discreet Cat was a speedy colt whose best distance was at a mile but was able to stretch out and win the 8½-furlong UAE Derby.

Gone West, the damsire of Discreet Cat, adds speed and stamina to the pedigree and notable offspring include Zafonic, winner of the 1990 English 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) and Commendable, winner of the 1997 Belmont Stakes (G1).

In addition, Gone West is the grandsire of the 2008 Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe winner, Zarkava, and Smarty Jones, winner of the 2004 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness (G1). In addition, Gone West is the damsire of Motivator, winner of the 2005 Epsom Derby (Group 1).

Much like Sky Kingdom, the tail-female line of Discreet Dancer is enhanced by the presence of Lassie Dear as the fourth dam and she adds to the distaff pedigree the important, powerful influence of La Troienne and Mayonaise.

Rounding out the top ten are and Brother Francis, Empire Way, Sabercat, Creative Cause and Howe Great.

Brother Francis is a young colt I’ve been following for some time and he, too, has not fully lived up to my expectations. I really like his pedigree but with two seconds and a third-place finish in his three previous starts, I’m beginning to wonder if he lacks the will to win. Time will tell.

Empire Way also has a nice pedigree and appears to be a late bloomer. But it remains to be seen if he will live up to his breeding. I like the way he finished strongly in the CashCall Futurity (G1) to just barely miss hitting the board. His first couple of races next year should tell the tale as to whether he will be a factor in the Derby.

Sabercat already has enough graded stakes earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby Starting gate. So it will be interesting to see the route that trainer Steve Asmussen takes to get to Louisville.

Sabercat’s sire, Bluegrass Cat, and his damsire, Forty Niner, were pretty good middle-distance runners. An interesting feature of his pedigree is that the tail-female line of both the sire and dam descend from La Troienne. Kentucky Derby winner Sea Hero also had that same feature in his pedigree.

Creative Cause is another Giant’s Causeway colt that I liked early on the trail and his third-place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) was no disgrace. If he continues to improve, Creative Cause should be competitive. But I’m not sure, yet, if he has classic potential.

On this side of the Atlantic, Howe Great appears to be the best son of promising first-crop sire Hat Trick while Dabirsim, undefeated in five starts, is a Group One winner in France and a Cartier Racing Awards European Two-Year-Old Champion.

Howe Great has two wins and a second-place finish in three starts to his credit and is owned and trained by the same connections that guided Animal Kingdom to victory in the 2011 Kentucky Derby.

Hat Trick has the potential to be an important sire and I’ll be watching his offspring closely.

Finally, honorable mention goes to Gnostic, Unbridled Minister, and Mistrial. All three have nice pedigrees and are working out but have yet to race. I’ll write more about them later if they show up on the trail.

CashCall Futurity Racing Roundup

2011-12-16T17:19:00.003-05:00

The $750,000 CashCall Futurity (G1) is the last major race of the season for 2-year-old Thoroughbreds competing for graded stakes honors and a nice Christmas bonus in graded earnings for connections hoping to get their young horse into the 2012 Kentucky Derby starting gate.

Majestic City heads the field of 13 juveniles as the 4-1 morning line favorite. He comes into the race with two bullet work outs and he has been getting a lot of hype but there are others in this race that I like better.

Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert has won the CashCall Futurity a record five times and he’s hoping to add another victory to that tally when he sends Liaison, the 9-2 morning line second choice, Sky Kingdom (6-1) and Drill (8-1) to the starting gate.

Of those three, Sky Kingdom is the one that interests me the most. He caught my attention when he broke his maiden at Hollywood Park on Thanksgiving going 8½-furlongs in 1:43.98. The time was not that spectacular but his Brisnet Speed Figures have impoved with each race and another move forward will make him very competitive in the CashCall Futurity.

I also really like the pedigree of Sky Kingdom. His Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile, a measure I use to evaluate classic potential, is a whopping 107.5 which is the highest of all 2-year-olds I’ve seen this year.

Sky Kingdom almost has what I refer to as a perfect “V” pattern pedigree where the stallions of the sire line and tail-female line are Classic Champion Thoroughbreds.

Empire Maker, the sire of Sky Kingdom, won the Belmont Stakes (G1) and grandsire Unbridled won the Kentucky Derby (G1). Kingmambo, the damsire of Sky Kingdom, won the Dubai Poule D'essai Des Poulains (Group 1). Seattle Slew and Secretariat, the sires of the second and third dam, were Triple Crown winners.

The tail-female line is also pretty outstanding. Weekend Surprise, the third dam of Sky Kingdom, is a Reine-de-Course mare and the dam of Belmont Stakes (G1) winner A. P. Indy and Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Summer Squall.

Lassie Dear, the fourth dam of Sky Kingdom is also a Reine-de-Course mare and descendant of the Female Family 3-l (Mayonaise) which produced the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Silver Charm.

If Sky Kingdom lives up to his breeding, he will be a force on the Kentucky Derby Trail next year.

Brother Francis is a young colt I’ve been following for some time and I’m very interested to see how he performs in this race. Brother Francis comes into the race with two second-place finishes in sprints but I’ve always thought that he would perform much better as the races get longer. Brother Francis has a good mix of speed and stamina in his pedigree that is so necessary to be a factor on the Derby trail.

Lion Heart, the sire of Brother Francis, was a precocious 2-year-old who won the 2003 Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and Hollywood Futurity Stakes (G2), which is now called the CashCall Futurity. As a 3-year-old, Lion Heart finished second in the San Rafael Stakes (G2), Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1).

Brother Francis is a descendant of the Tale Of The Cat, Storm Cat sire line and another 2-year-old winner from that line is Overdriven who won the Sanford Stakes (G2) at Saratoga on July 24.

The distaff part of the pedigree also has a good mix of speed and stamina and the damsire line is impressive with Classic Champion Thoroughbreds in the first three generations.

Spectrum, the damsire of Brother Francis, won the 8-furlong Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) and finished second in the 10-furlong Prix du Prince d'Orange (Group 3). Rainbow Quest, the second damsire, won the 12-furlong Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1). Blushing Groom, the third damsire, was a French Champion Two-Year-Old Colt, a European Champion Three-Year-Old Miler and winner of the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas).

Viapervita, the dam of Brother Francis, was a listed stakes winner in Germany. Way For Life, the second dam of Brother Francis, was listed stakes placed in Germany. Platini, the sire of Way For Life, was a Group One stakes winner in Germany. His sire, Surumu also sired Acatenango – the damsire of 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.

If Brother Francis continues to improve, he has the potential to be a factor on the 2012 Derby trail.

Liaison and Blingo (8-1) also deserve mention and could be competitive in the CashCall Futurity.

Liaison has never been out of the money in three starts and comes into the race with a first-place finish in the Real Quiet Stakes at Hollywood Park on November 12. His speed figures have also improved with every race and Baffert knows how to get his young colts ready for big races.

A bullet work out on December 11 at Santa Anita Park and Liaison could be ready to run a good race.

Blingo comes into the race off of an impressive maiden debut win by 2¼-lengths at Hollywood Park on November 25. Blingo rallied from the back of the 11-horse field to get up for the win, covering the mile in 1:35.84.

That’s the kind of time I like to see in a young colt and if Blingo improves off of that effort, he should be competitive.

Book Update, Blinkers Off, 2012 Derby Outlook

2011-12-05T13:33:00.003-05:00

Thanksgiving is always special at the Carter household and this year was a special time of celebration and giving thanks as Kerry M. Thomas, founder of the Thomas Herding Technique, and I finished the book we co-authored and turned it in to the publisher – Trafalgar Square Books.

“Horse Profiling, The Secret to Motivating Equine Athletes” is now in the editing, proofing stage and is scheduled to be released in the spring of 2012 just before the Kentucky Derby. Preorders are available and if purchased before February 1, 2012, you can get 15% off of the retail price plus free shipping.

Online orders can be purchased at this link. At checkout, enter the coupon code KT151011 to get the discount. You can also order the book by telephone at 800.423.4525 and be sure to mention the code KT151011 to get the discount.

Trafalgar Square Books recently wrote a nice blog about Kerry’s trip to Louisville for the Breeders’ Cup and his speaking engagement at PATH International Conference at Lexington, Kentucky. Later this month, a feature story about Kerry will appear in the Florida Horse magazine.

Kerry will return for another visit to Louisville from December 13-20 and if you would like to schedule a meeting you can contact him by telephone at 610.593.4889 or by email at stablemaster@thomasherdingtechnique.com.

***

A friend of mine emailed me to tell me that he heard my name mentioned by Tom Quigley, publisher of The HorsePlayer Magazine, on last Friday’s TVG Blinkers Off show hosted by Matt Carothers. In December 2010, I wrote about Animal Kingdom in my 2011 Kentucky Derby Outlook and he was my Kentucky Derby pick in the Derby edition of The HorsePlayer Magazine.

I would like to thank Mr. Quigley for the mention. If you have not read The HorsePlayer Magazine, it would be a good resource to add to your reading list. Here’s the link to the Blinkers Off show and the mention was at the 3:43 minute mark.

***

From August to the end of November, I was extremely busy working on the book and with it completed, I’ve been in catch up mode reviewing pedigrees and race replays of the 2-year-olds on the Kentucky Derby trail. There doesn’t appear to be a clear standout among this crop but nevertheless there are few I’m interested in and I’ll have more, later, when I write my 2012 Kentucky Derby Roundup at the end of this month.

Two colts I’m especially interested in are Battle Force and Brother Francis. They may have classic potential and I’m looking forward to see how they fare as 3-year-olds.

I’ll have more, later.

Hollywood Prevue Racing Roundup

2011-11-23T21:04:00.002-05:00

The $100,000 Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) is the marquee race at Hollywood Park tomorrow and seven 2-year-old thoroughbreds will go to the starting gate for a chance to earn graded stakes earnings.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert sends So Brilliant to the post at the 2-1 morning line favorite.

So Brilliant, a son of Medaglia D’Oro, was rather brilliant winning his maiden debut in a sprint race by 2¼-lenghts at Santa Anita Park on October 22. So Brilliant earned a 95 Brisnet Speed Figure for that performance, leading gate to wire, and covered the 6-furlongs in a sharp 1:09.02.

So Brilliant shouldn’t have a problem stretching out to 7-furlongs and I look for him to be competitive.

Two long shots I like are Empire Way, the 5-2 second choice, and Brother Francis who is 8-1 on the morning line.

Trained by Mike Harrington, Empire Way comes into the race with a win in his maiden debut at Hollywood Park on November 13. Empire Way covered the 6½-furlongs in 1:17.93 and earned an 84 speed figure for that effort.

“I don’t think the race took too much out of him,” said Harrington in a Daily Racing Form news story. “I think he needs another race before I run him a mile and a sixteenth.”

If Empire Way runs a good race, his next start will be in the $750,000 CashCall Futurity (G1) at Hollywood Park on December 17, noted Harrington who also has Creative Cause in his stable. If Empire Way continues to move forward, Harrington could have two promising colts on the 2012 Triple Crown trail.

A full brother to Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic winner Royal Delta, Empire Way has a nice pedigree and I’m anxious to see how well he performs in the Prevue.

Empire Maker, the sire of Empire Way, and grandsire Unbridled both were Classic Champion Thoroughbreds as were the damsire A.P. Indy, and grand damsire Seattle Slew.

The tail-female line of Empire Way is also pretty impressive.

Delta Princess, the dam of Empire Way, was a multiple graded stakes winner on the dirt and turf. Lyphard’s Delta, the second dam of Empire Way, raced in England and won the Vodafone Nassau Stakes (Group 2). Proud Delta, the third dam of Empire Way, also was a multiple graded stakes winner and the 1976 Eclipse Champion Older Mare.

Brother Francis comes into the race off of an impressive second-place finish in his maiden debut. The chart comment line notes: “BROTHER FRANCIS a bit slow to begin, dropped back off the rail, circled five wide into the stretch and finished well to gain the place late.”

Starting from post 12, Brother Francis came from dead last at the three eighths pole and was flying late at the finish. I like the way Brother Francis closed in the stretch and his pedigree indicates that he may have a good mix of speed and stamina that is so necessary to be a factor on the Derby trail.

Lion Heart, the sire of Brother Francis, was a precocious 2-year-old who won the 2003 Hollywood Prevue Stakes (G3) and Hollywood Futurity Stakes (G2). As a 3-year-old, Lion Heart finished second in the San Rafael Stakes (G2), Blue Grass Stakes (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1).

Brother Francis is a descendant of the Tale Of The Cat, Storm Cat sire line and another 2-year-old winner from that line is Overdriven who won the Sanford Stakes (G2) at Saratoga on July 24.

The distaff part of the pedigree also has a good mix of speed and stamina and the damsire line is impressive with Classic Champion Thoroughbreds in the first three generations.

Spectrum, the damsire of Brother Francis, won the 8-furlong Irish 2,000 Guineas (Group 1) and finished second in the 10-furlong Prix du Prince d'Orange (Group 3). Rainbow Quest, the second damsire, won the 12-furlong Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group 1). Blushing Groom, the third damsire, was a French Champion Two-Year-Old Colt, a European Champion Three-Year-Old Miler and winner of the Poule d'Essai des Poulains (French 2,000 Guineas).

Viapervita, the dam of Brother Francis, was a listed stakes winner in Germany. Way For Life, the second dam of Brother Francis, was listed stakes placed in Germany. Platini, the sire of Way For Life, was a Group One stakes winner in Germany. His sire, Surumu also sired Acatenango – the sire of 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom.

If Brother Francis continues to improve off of his maiden win, he may have the potential to be a factor on the 2012 Derby trail.

***

Have a happy and save Thanksgiving everyone.

Delta Downs Jackpot Racing Roundup

2011-11-19T06:08:00.002-05:00

The Delta Downs Jackpot (G3), with a $1 million dollar purse, is the first major graded stakes race on the trail to the 2012 Kentucky Derby. A win will give a young thoroughbred enough graded earnings to get into the Kentucky Derby and ten 2-year-olds go to the starting gate today to compete for a chance to earn a spot in the Derby starting gate.

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert ships Drill to the Jackpot from California and he’ll go to the post as the 2-1 morning line favorite.

With a win in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) in September, Drill is the only graded stakes winner entered in the race and appears to be the deserving favorite. Drill comes into the race with a 2-1-0 record in five starts and will be racing with blinkers.

I normally don’t pay attention to an equipment change unless it dramatically affects a horse’s performance. But twice Drill has finished out of the money when he raced without the blinkers – Drill finished eighth in his maiden debut and tenth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs.

It remains to be seen if the lack of blinkers was the reason for Drill’s poor performance. However, if Drill runs to his form in the Del Mar Futurity and second-place finish in the Norfolk Stakes (G1), he’ll be very competitive and tough to beat.

My Adonis is getting some buzz as the 4-1 morning line second-choice and comes into the race with two sharp wins including a 5¼-length victory in the Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs on October 22.

But three long shots I like and will use with Drill in the exotics are Longview Drive (10-1), Laurie’s Rocket (10-1) and Jake Mo (15-1).

Longview Drive, a full-brother to Louisiana Derby winner Pyro, has never been out of the money in four starts and comes into the race with three wins including the Cavonnier Juvenile Stakes at Santa Rosa racetrack and the Charlie Palmer Futurity at Fresno racetrack.

Although Longview Drive has yet to compete in a graded stakes race, with three wins in four starts he is farther along than Pyro who only had one win in four starts at this same time of year.

After a two month layoff, Longview Drive easily won his route debut last month going 8½-furlongs in 1:45.50 to win the Charlie Palmer Futurity by 1¼-lengths. The time was slow but I like it that he won off the layoff and he has room to improve his performance in the Jackpot.

I also like it that Joel Rosario has the mount.

I’ll be watching Laurie’s Rocket in the post parade to see how he looks. Laurie’s Rocket is taking a big step up in class but with Bluegrass Cat as his sire and American Chance as the damsire, Laurie’s Rocket has the breeding to handle the stretch out to 8½-furlongs.

Bluegrass Cat won the Remsen Stakes (G2), Nashua Stakes (G3), Sam F. Davis Stakes and finished second in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1). American Chance was a decent middle-distance runner who won the Jersey Derby (G2), Lafayette Stakes (G3) and finished second in the Illinois Derby.

With the addition of blinkers in his last race, Laurie’s Rocket also showed big improvement earning a 91 Brisnet Speed Figure. If Laure’s Rocket improves off of that effort he should be competitive at a good price.

Jake Moe is taking a big step up in class and has never run in a route race. But with Kentucky Derby winner Giacomo as his sire and Canadian Triple Crown winner With Approval as his damsire, he has the breeding to handle the stretch out.

And the stretch out to 8½-furlongs may be what Jake Moe needs as the comment line for several of his races indicates that he rallies late.

Good luck with your picks.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Stakes Roundup

2011-11-04T07:10:00.002-04:00

Trainer Michael Matz will send Union Rags to the starting gate Saturday as the 2-1 morning line favorite of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs.

Union Rags is the deserving favorite and he should be tough in the Juvenile. He comes in to the race undefeated in three starts including an eye- popping 7¼-length win in the Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and a 5¼-length win in the Champagne Stakes (G1).

Union Rags running style and pedigree indicate that he should be able to handle the stretch out to 8½-furlongs. The only questions are how well he’ll handle the 13-horse field and the start from post 10.

Dixie Union, the sire of Union Rags, was a precocious 2-year-old that won the Best Pal Stakes (G3), Hollywood Juvenile Championship Stakes (G3) and Norfolk Stakes (G2). As a 3-year-old, Dixie Union won the Haskell Invitational (G1) and Malibu Stakes (G1).

Creative Cause (7-2) is the best 2-year-old on the west coast and he should also be tough in the Juvenile. He comes into the race with three wins, including the Best Pal Stakes (G2) and Norfolk Stakes (G1), and a third-place finish in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), which was changed to a second-place finish due to interference from Majestic City in the final strides of the race.

Creative Cause is a young colt I’ve written about in his previous races and I really like him in the Juvenile. And he should get better as a 3-year-old.

Giant’s Causeway, the sire of Creative Cause, was undefeated in three starts as a two-year-old in Europe including a 2-length win in both the 7-furlong Futurity Stakes (Group 3) and the 7-furlong Prix de la Salamandre (Group 1).
Storm Cat, the grandsire of Creative Cause, is well known for siring precocious two-year-olds and he is the grandsire of Johannesburg – winner of the 2001 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Dream Of Summer, the dam of Creative Cause, was a multiple graded stakes winner who was competitive in sprint and route races up to 8½-furlongs and earned over $1 million during her racing career.

I don’t know if Alpha (15-1) will win but he should be competitive and he is the colt that most intrigues me in this race. Alpha has the best pedigree of any 2-year-old on the trail and if he lives up to his breeding, he should be a serious classic candidate next year.

His Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile, an index I use to measure classic potential, is a very good 97.5 – a score of 100 or more is excellent.

Bernardini, the sire of Alpha, was a Classic Champion Thoroughbred as were his grandsire, A. P. Indy and great grandsire Seattle Slew. Nijinsky, the damsire of Alpha, and Northern Dancer were also Classic Champion Thoroughbreds. Alydar, the sire of the second dam, would have been a Classic Champion Thoroughbred if it had not been for Affirmed.

Munnaya, the dam of Alpha, raced in England and won the 11-furlong Lingfield Oaks Trail Stakes and finished third in the 10-furlong Pretty Polly Stakes. The remaining four dams on the tail-female line – Hiaam, Kamar, Square Angel and Nangela – were all stakes winners. Kamar was the 1979 Canadian Champion 3-year-old filly and Square Angel was the 1973 Champion.

Alpha won his maiden debut by six lengths and was wheeled back a month later in the Champagne Stakes (G1) where he finished a respectable second to Union Rags.

I’ve seen horses with good pedigrees who failed to transfer their breeding to the racetrack and only time will tell how well Alpha fares on the Kentucky Derby trail. But Alpha should continue to improve as he gets older and I look for him to be competitive in the Juvenile.

Two other long shots I like are Drill (8-1) and Optimizer (15-1).

Drill finished eighth in his maiden debut but since then he has won two races, including the Del Mar Futurity (G1), and a second-place finish in the Norfolk Stakes (G1).

Lawyer Ron, the sire of Drill, won three races in 10 starts as a two-year-old including a 10-length romp in an one mile, 70-yard allowance race at Louisiana Downs and an 8½-length romp in the one mile Diamond Joe Stakes at Evangeline Downs.

The dam and grand dam of Drill were not that productive on the racetrack, but the third dam Water Dance won the Twilight Tear Stakes and placed in the Long Look Handicap (G2), Beaugay Handicap, Hannah Dustin Handicap and Miss Liberty Handicap.

Luiana, the fourth dam of Drill, was a Reine-de-Course producer of seven winners including Prayers'N Promises, winner of the Matron Stakes (G1) and Spinaway Stakes (G1), as well as the Preakness Stakes (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Little Current.

Banquet Bell, the fifth dam of Drill, was a Matriarch of the Turf and the dam Chateaugay, winner of the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1).

Optimizer has never been out of the money in three starts and his trainer D. Wayne Lukas knows how to get young colts to the winners circle.

English Channel, the sire of Optimizer, was the 2007 Eclipse Champion Turf Male and a multiple Graded Stakes winner who was competitive from 10 to 12-furlongs. Belmont Stakes winner and Sire of Sires A. P. Indy is the damsire of Optimizer.

Indy Pick, the dam of Optimizer, was not stakes placed but had had 2-1-1 record in 6 starts. Fantastic Find, the second dam of Optimizer, won the Grade 1 Hempstead Handicap and placed in several other Graded Stakes races.

Blitey, the third dam of Optimizer, and fourth dam Lady Pitt are Reines-de-Course Mares (Queens of the turf).

Good luck with your Breeders’ Cup picks.

Bourbon Stakes Racing Roundup

2011-10-09T07:41:00.002-04:00

Trainer Ken McPeek will send Here Comes Frazier to the starting gate today as the 7-2 morning line lukewarm favorite in the 21^st running of the $150,000 Bourbon Stakes (G3) at Keeneland racetrack.

Here Comes Frazier has never run in a route race or a stakes race but his impressive 7-length win in his maiden debut must have been enough of a confidence booster for McPeek to enter him in today’s race.

McPeek is good at bringing along the speedy types like Noble’s Promise who won the 2009 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity and he must have a lot of confidence in Here Comes Frazier too.

Badge of Silver, the sire of Here Comes Frazier, was a good middle-distance runner who raced from the age of three to six. Some important races he won include the 8½-furlong Risen Star Stakes (G3) and the 9-furlong Hal's Hope Handicap (G3), New Orleans Handicap (G2) and San Gabriel Handicap (G2).

Caller I D, the damsire of Here Comes Frazier, is mostly a sprint influence. As a 2-year-old, he won the Sanford Stakes (G3), Saratoga Special Stakes (G2) and the Arlington-Washington Futurity (G2).

The tail-female line of Here Comes Frazier traces back to the fourth dam Monarchy who was a Matriarch of the Turf and the stamina influence of Spectacular Bid, Nijinsky and Princequillo reinforce the female line.

Trainer Richard Mandella also appears to have a lot of confidence in Smart Ellis (8-1) who ships in from California to run in the Bourbon. Jockey Victor Espinoza also ships in from California to make his second start on Smart Ellis.

Smart Ellis finished seventh in his maiden debut and was beaten by 17 lengths but made a big move forward in his next outing to break his maiden by one length going a mile in 1:36.83. That’s a decent time and the 86 Brisnet Speed Figure he earned in his last race is competitive with this group.

Smarty Jones, the sire of Smart Ellis, was a precocious 2-year-old who went on to win the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Preakness Stakes (G1). El Gran Senor, the damsire of Smart Ellis, won the English 2,000 Guineas (G1) as well as the Irish Derby (G1). He also finished second in the Epsom Derby (G1) and was a Champion 3-year-old colt in England and Ireland.

If Smart Ellis continues to improve, he should be competitive.

Lucky Chappy (6-1) was one of my picks in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity but he was scratched from that race so that Team Valor International and trainer Graham Motion could run him in the Bourbon.

Lucky Chappy ships in from Italy where he had two wins and a second-place finish in three starts on the turf. Lucky Chappy has a stamina-oriented pedigree and should be able to handle the Futurity with no problem.

High Chaparral, the sire of Lucky Chappy, won the Epsom and Irish Derbies and was the 2002 and 2003 Eclipse Champion Male Turf Horse. Distant Relative, the damsire of Lucky Chappy, was a multiple Group winner in England, Ireland and France and was a Champion 3-year-old colt in Ireland. Germane, the dam of Lucky Chappy, was a Group 3 winner of the 7-furlong Rockfel Stakes in England and placed in several other Group races.

A long shot I like is Animal Spirits (12-1) who is stepping up to stakes competition but has already run at this distance, finishing second by a head in his maiden debut.

Arch, the sire of Animal Spirits, won the 10-furlong Super Derby (G1) and sired the 2010 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Blame and Arravale – the 2006 Canadian Horse of the Year. Personal Ensign, the second dam of Animal Spirits, was one of the all-time greats who was a multiple graded stakes winner, undefeated in 13 starts.

So, if Animal Spirits continues to improve off of his maiden win, he should be competitive.