Friday, September 30, 2016

FrontRunner Stakes Racing Roundup

©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby rolls west Saturday to Santa Anita Park where seven young Thoroughbreds have been entered in the $300,000 FrontRunner Stakes (G1) which is the first Grade One race on the Kentucky Derby Trail and a Breeders’ Cup “Win and You’re In” Challenge Race. Post time is 3 p.m. ET.
Klimt, conditioned by Hall of Fame Trainer Bob Baffert, has been tabbed as the 6-5 morning line favorite. He comes into this race with a 3-0-0 record in four starts including wins in the Best Pal (G2) and Del Mar Futurity (G1) stakes. Here’s the video and chart call of the Futurity:

KLIMT stalked outside then alongside a rival, bid outside the pacesetter nearing and into the stretch, took a short lead in midstretch and drew clear under left handed urging.

Klimt settled about 2½ lengths off the leaders who set fast fractions and took over in the stretch to pull away and win by an easy 4¼ lengths.
Quality Road, the sire of Klimt, easily won his maiden debut, and only race as a two year old, in November of 2008. In his debut as a three year old, he finished second in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park in January. He followed that in February with a 4¼ length win in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and in March, Quality Road ran to a 1¾ length win over Dunkirk in the Florida Derby (G1).
In late April, Quality Road developed a quarter crack on his right front foot and that prevented him from running in the Kentucky Derby. After a three month break, Quality Road returned to racing to win the Amsterdam Stakes (G2).
Quality Road completed his racing career with wins in the Hal’s Hope Stakes (G3), Donn Handicap (G1), Metropolitan Handicap (G1) and Woodward Stakes (G1). He finished third in the Travers Stakes (G1) and second in both the Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes (G1) and Whitney Handiciap (G1). 
Since his debut in June, Klimt has been perfect in three sprint starts and I look for him to be competitive in the stretch out to 8½ furlongs.
Gormley (8-1) won his maiden debut last month with ease and it appears that his trainer John Shirreffs and jockey, Victor Espinoza, are confident that he will be able to step up in graded stakes competition. Here’s the video and chart call of his maiden win:

GORMLEY dueled between horses, took the lead outside a rival into the stretch and drew clear under a steady hand ride while being shown the whip.

Gormley looked like he had a lot more left and that he should be able to handle the stretch out in distance. With an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® he’s one of the best bred colts in this race and, if he lives up to his breeding, he has the potential to be competitive and, perhaps, upset at a nice price.
Malibu Moon, the sire of Gormley, made only two starts as a two year old, compiling a 1-1-0 record, before a slab fracture ended his racing career.
At stud, Malibu Moon sired the 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. In addition, he’s sired several horses that have been competitive on the Derby trail such as Danzig Moon, Mr. Z and Stanford. Other nice runners sired by Malibu Moon include Life At Ten, Devil May Care, Declan’s Moon, Ask the Moon, Prospective, Kauai Katie, Moon Catcher and Malibu Mint.
Espinoza retains the mount and I look for the pair to be competitive.
Plum Dandy (6-1) comes into this race with a 1-0-0 record in two starts for trainer Simon Callaghan. Here’s the video and chart call of his last race:

PLUM DANDY had good early speed and dueled inside, took the lead leaving the backstretch, inched away nearing the quarter pole, came a bit off the rail into the stretch and drew clear under urging.

Plum Dandy also has an A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® and he should get better as the races get longer.
Medaglia d’Oro, the sire of Plum Dandy, was a good middle-distance runner that compiled an 8-7-0 record in 17 starts with $5,754,720 in career earnings. Overall, he had seven wins and five second-place finishes in 14 route races.
Medaglia d’Oro finished second in his only start as a two year old but as a three year old he won the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and finished second in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) in route to the 2002 Derby where he finished in fourth place.
In the Preakness Stakes (G1), Medaglia d’Oro finished eighth but rebounded from that run to finish second in the Belmont Stakes (G1). He went on to complete his racing season as a three year old with wins in the nine-furlong Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and the 10-furlong Travers Stakes (G1).
As a four year old, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine-furlong Strub Stakes (G2), Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and Whitney Handicap (G1). In addition, he finished second in the 10-furlong Pacific Classic Stakes (G1) and Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1).
At the age of five, Medaglia d’Oro won the nine-furlong Donn Handicap (G1) and finished second in the 10-furlong Emirates Airline Dubai World Cup (G1).
Plum Dandy picks up the services of jockey Mike Smith and a return to the form of his maiden win will make him competitive in the FrontRunner (G1).
Honorable mention goes to Straight Fire (6-5) and Vibe (20-1). Straight Fire is 9-5 morning line second choice and he’s a fast, talented colt. However, I don’t like him for the win and if jockey Flavien Pratt can slow him down he may factor in the exotics wagering.


This is the fifth consecutive year for Churchill Downs to use a point system to determine eligibility to get into the Kentucky Derby starting gate. A total of 35 races comprise the Road to the Kentucky Derby and a significant change to the schedule is that the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) will replace the Grey Stakes (G3) as a qualifying race.
In addition, Churchill Downs has partnered with the Japan Racing Association to feature the Cattleya Sho Stakes and Hayacinth Stakes as two qualifying races in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Under the tiered-point system implemented by Churchill Downs to determine Kentucky Derby eligibility, the winner of the Frontrunner will receive 10 points while the second-place finisher will receive 4 points, the third-place finisher will receive 2 points and 1 point will be awarded to the fourth-place finisher.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile, A Powerful Handicapping and Sales Analysis Tool, Picks Iroquois Stakes, Several Top Yearlings at Keeneland Sale

©2016 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

Since the debut of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software in the 2015 Kentucky Derby (G1), Dallas and I are excited about the results we’ve achieved with the software as a powerful handicapping and Thoroughbred sales analytical tool.
We see our software as “A New Vision, Standard Of Excellence, For An Old Industry.” And, we are confident that it will revolutionize the Thoroughbred racing and breeding industry.
The software assigns each horse a profile score. The higher the score the more potential that horse has to be a top-quality stakes winner or a winner of a classic race like the Kentucky Derby.
The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is a powerful tool that helps horse owners and breeders take the guesswork breeding their horses. In addition, the profile is a powerful sales analytical tool for horse buyers, helping them make the best decisions and investments when buying horses at auction.
For example, Carpe Diem was a $1.6 million dollar purchase as a 2YO in training. However, our software profile accurately predicted he would not finish in the money in the 2015 Kentucky Derby.
Last weekend, readers who used my picks for the Iroquois Stakes (G3) could have cashed in on the Exacta ($40.80) and Trifecta ($173.80).
In addition to being and excellent handicapping tool, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is also a proven sales analytical tool that picked several of the top-priced yearlings at the 2016 Keeneland September Yearling Sale.
Overall there were 4,479 yearlings cataloged for sale with 2,334 colts. I know the breeding it takes to produce a young horse with stakes and classic potential and through session eight I profiled 101 colts that had an A+ or A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® Grade Index. Of those, 11 sold for over $500,000. Here’s a look at those horses.

Hip 845, a bay colt by Curlin out of Glinda the Good by Hard Spun, brought the hammer down for $1 million as the sale topper on day one of book two and he was purchased by Mike Ryan, a bloodstock agent for E5 Racing. Ryan also was involved in a previous yearling sale with the purchase of Palace Malice, another son of Curlin and winner of the 2013 Belmont Stakes (G1). 
“He’s as good a Curlin as you’ll see,” said Ryan in a Bloodhorse news story. “Curlin is Curlin. In my mind he’s as good as Tapit.”
Here’s the video of his sale:

In session eight, Ryan also purchased Hip 2582, a bay colt by Curlin out of Mystery Trip by Belong to Me, for $280,000. This colt was one of my personal favorites and best of sale. I watched his sale on line and he appeared to have a very good mind and temperament. He stood there like a statue with his ears flicking back and forth, surveying his environment, and appeared to be very composed and in command.
I’ll be looking forward to see how he fares in his development as a young colt in training. One never knows how any of these young horses will fare as a racehorse. But he has a good pedigree and, if he lives up his breeding, he has the potential to be competitive in stakes and classic competition.
Hip 154, a chestnut colt by Tapit out of Afleeting Lady by Afleet Alex, sold for $850,000 to Courtlandt Farm and he was the third highest price on day one of book one. Here’s the video of his sale:

Hip 161, a gray or roan colt by Tapit out of Alittlebitearly by Thunder Gulch, sold for $800,000 to John C. Oxley and he was the fourth highest priced yearling on day one of book one. Here’s the video of his sale.
Hip 374, a bay colt by Tapit out of Grand Prayer by Grand Slam, was the seventh highest priced yearling on day two of book one and he sold for $700,000 to Hidden Brooke Farm. Here’s the video of his sale.
Hip 183, a bay colt by Curlin out of Arania by Dynaformer, was the sixth highest priced yearling sold on day one of book one and he sold for $675,000 to Lanes End. Here’s the video of his sale.
Hip 956, a chestnut colt by Curlin out of On My Way by Giant’s Causeway, was the third highest priced yearling on day one of book two and he sold for $550,000 to Tom Conway. Here’s the video of his sale.
Here’s a look at the other horses I profiled through session eight that had an A+ or A Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile®:

Hip – (Dam)

Galileo                                             Sale Price       Buyer
Hip 446 – (La Traviata)                      out

Hip 1976 – (Bola de Cristal)              $52,000           Denholtz Stables
Hip 2164 – (Mumbo Jumbo)              $33,000           K.O.I.D. Co., Ltd.
Hip 1030 – (Snooki)                          $120,000         Winchell Thoroughbreds
Hip 1420 – (Screen Goddess)             $275,000         Steven W. Young, Agent
Hip 1773 – (Opera Song)                   $55,000           Main Line Stable
Hip 853 – (Greatest Show)                $210,000         Reeves Thoroughbred
Hip 1952 – (Aurora Prospect)            $55,000           Robert Meier

Hip 1256 – (Guard the Lines)            $450,000         Jerry Crawford/Donegal Racing
Hip 512 – (Moonlight Lover)               $300,000         Katsumi Yoshida        
Hip 2582 – (Mystery Trip)                  $280,000         Mike Ryan, Agent
Hip 806 – (Devious Intent)                 $425,000         Zayat Stables, LLC
Hip 662 – (Surf Song)                        $270,000         Zayat Stables. LLC
Hip 1678 – Curlin/In Escrow            $35,000           K.O.I.D. Co., Ltd.
Hip 458 – Curlin/Lilies So Fair          $200,000         Reeves Thoroughbred
Hip 2129 – (Marcellina d'Oro             out
Hip 2181 – (Over the Edge)                $140,000         Grand Oaks
Hip 528 – (Mythical Bride)                 $410,000         Mike Repole
Hip 1023 – (Silva)                              out
Hip 981 – (Purrfectly)                         $95,000           RNA
Hip 469 – (Love Match)                      $100,000         Tom McCrocklin

Giant’s Causeway
Hip 1410 – (Sail Away Home)             $35,000            RNA
Hip 464 – (Lost Empire)                    out
Hip 164 – (Alone)                              $180,000         Bluesky Bloodstock
Hip 1753 – (Miss Salsa)                    $25,000           Harry Weisleder
Hip 2204 – (Quiet Dance)                 $27,000           K.O.I.D. Co., Ltd.

Lemon Drop Kid
Hip 2097 – (Kulik Cat)                      $40,000           Luis A. Shirley
Hip 2045 – (Finnie Mac Cool)            $110,000         Bruno DeBerdt, Agent
Hip 2055 – (Genuine Class)              $5,000             Jerry Antoniuk
Hip 1117 – (Ava Darling)                  $45,000           RNA

Smart Strike
Hip 612 – (Sanima)                          $50,000           RNA
Hip 14 – (Secret Status)                   $90,000           King’s Equine
Hip 263 – (Compelling)                     $170,000         RNA
Hip 1112 – (A.P. Double Cat)            $67,000           King’s Equine
Hip 40 – (Soul Search)                       out

Hip 1582 – (Cassis Royale)               $85,000           Juan Garcia
Hip 1100 – (Adream)                        $225,000         Bluewater Sales, Agent
Hip 1160 – (Composing)                   $17,000           RNA
Hip 591 – (Refinement)                     $80,000           RNA
Hip 497 – (Mining My Own)               $185,000         RNA
Hip 2293 – (Termite)                         out
Hip 2581 – (My Dear Lady)                $12,000           H. Allen Poindexter
Hip 890 – (Kootenai)                          $120,000         RNA

Distorted Humor
Hip 330 – (Eternal Bounty)                out
Hip 187 – (Aryaamm)                         out
Hip 42 – (Spare Change)                    $190,000         RNA
Hip 252 – (Cindy’s Mom)                   $230,000         Ben Glass
Hip 354 – (Gamely Girl)                     $450,000         A. Lavin, Agent

Hip 474 – (Madame Du Lac)              $60,000           RNA
Hip 607 – (Ruthian)                          $220,000         RNA
Hip 33 – (Smart Believer)                   $140,000         RNA
Hip 1361 – (Onza)                             $27,000           RNA
Hip 310 – (Dowell House)                  $260,000         Hartley/De Renzo
Hip 280 – (Dancing Flame)                out
Hip 318 – (Easter Bunnette)              $235,000         RNA

Medaglia d’Oro
Hip 278 – (Danceinthesunlight)          out
Hip 484 – (Malvinia)                          out

Street Sense
Hip 1639 – (Front and Center)          $70,000           Kazakov
Hip 1740 – (Media Madness)             $150,000         Parker Place Racing

Pioneerof the Nile
Hip 888 – (Katz Me If You Can)          $280,000         WD North TBs
Hip 1164 – (Cool Storm)                    out

Hip 1274 – (Hurricane Flag)              $475,000         Sallusto & Albina Agent
Hip 36 – (Society Pages                     $150,000         Two Brothers Stable

Super Saver
Hip 186 – (Art Teacher                       out
Hip 193 – (Awesome Fleet                   out
Hip 1188 – (Donnay                          $22,000           RNA
Hip 1132 – (Be Smart                        $200,000         Silver Creek Thoroughbreds
Hip 1029 – (Snicker Belle                  $45,000           RNA

Animal Kingdom
Hip 715 – (Alyssum)                          $90,000           Bruno DeBerdt Agent
Hip 2137 – (Mesa Fresca)                  $140,000         H. Hatch, Agent 1
Hip 656 – (Subeen)                            $75,000           Winchell TBs
Hip 2275 – (St. Malo’s Gate)               $47,000           RNA
Hip 2540 – (Late Romance)                $20,000           Francisco D’Angelo, Agent

Street Cry
Hip 2781 – (Captivating Lass)          

Malibu Moon
Hip 976 – (Private Gift)                       $100,000         RNA
Hip 354 – (Fiscal Year)                       $72,000           Group 7C
Hip 46 – (Spirited Away)                     $70,000           RNA

Union Rags
Hip 104 – (Trensa)                            $200,000         Kempton
Hip 1965 – Bell’s Shoes)                    $210,000         Mike Ryan, Agent

Hip 1224 – High Chaparral/Fire Fairy          $70,000           Paul Moroney Bloodstock
Hip 291 – Orb/Deep Feeling                         $300,000         Mayberry Farm
Hip 2001 – Treasure Beach/Cold Blooded     $27,000           Parrish Farms
Hip 2471 – Lonhro/Fly the Colors                $60,000           North American Thorouhbreds
Hip 289 – Frankel/Debonnaire                     $325,000         RNA
Hip 563 – War Front/Praise                         $100,000         Blandford Bloodstock
Hip 2210 – Tale of Ekati/Regally Bred          $45,000           RNA
Hip 2138 – Temple City/Mien                      $200,000         RNA
Hip 96 – Redoute's Choice/Thislillightofmine out
Hip 192 – Sea The Stars/Awesome d’Oro       $250,000         Calumet Farm
Hip 2015 – Sky Mesa/Dance Fever               $5,000             Eisaman Equine

The ability to know how a horse may perform on the racetrack is a valuable resource not only for handicappers but it also is a valuable tool for breeders who want to know how to make the best breeding decisions and for buyers at auction who want to make the wisest investments.
Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.
The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® software unlocks the secret of the pedigree and Ancestral Herd to identify which horses have the potential to be top-quality stakes winners or, perhaps, a classic champion.
If you are planning to breed, or purchase at auction, a potential classic-winning Thoroughbred, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® is the analytical tool you need to take the guesswork out of buying and breeding champion racehorses.
The empirical data of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile® will easily show you which horses have the potential to be classic champions while other horses may only be quality stakes winners.
The profile will give you the important information necessary to make the best decisions and investments when breeding or buying horses at auction. For a free consultation, please contact us at my website Classic Champion Thoroughbreds, LLC.