Monday, May 18, 2015

Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ Identifies Ancestral Herd Influence, Potential Of Competitors In Preakness Stakes 140



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

The Preakness Stakes (G1) is in the history book. Dallas and I are pleased with the results of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software analysis which proved to be even better than the Kentucky Derby where we picked five of the top six finishers as the top tier of horses in that race.
All three Preakness Stakes (G1) models had good results but the best was the Original Ranking which is the actual score of the horse before data mining. Only American Pharoah and Firing Line had data mining in that group:

Original Ranking
Classic Champion                                                  Thoroughbred Profile

Rank, Horse                                          Finish
1. Danzig Moon (15-1)        395.63          6
2. Dortmund (7-2)              391.88          4
3. Divining Rod (12-1)        385.63          3
4. American Pharoah (4-5) 384.38*         1
5. Mr. Z (20-1)                   382.50          5
6. Firing Line (4-1)             380.63*        7
7. Bodhisattva (20-1)         368.75          8
8. Tale of Verve (30-1)        367.50          2
*Data Mining Analysis


Danzig Moon and Tale of Verve were the only two that did not run close to their ranking.

Dortmund was ranked 2nd and he finished 4th.

Diving Rod was ranked 3rd and he finished 3rd.

American Pharoah was ranked 4th and he finished 1st.

Mr. Z was ranked 5th and he finished 5th.

Firing Line was ranked 6th and he finished 7th.

Bodhisattva was ranked 7th and he finished 8th.


After looking at the Derby and Preakness, I believe that Firing Line's seventh-place finish is probably more true to where he should be ranked in this herd. I have some thoughts about American Pharoah, too, but I want to do more research before commenting on his success.
The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software has a proven record of consistency.
In the Kentucky Derby, all three models had good results but the Derby Data Mining Model Two was, by far, the best. The model clearly isolated five of the top six finishers – American Pharoah, Dortmund, Frosted, Danzig Moon and Materiality – as the top tier of horses in that race. And, you can read about those results here.
In addition, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software was instrumental in picking the top performers in the major prep races leading up to Kentucky Derby 141. You can read about those results here.
Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.
The profile does not take into account other factors that could determine the outcome of a race such as the horse’s will to win or the fact that, for many different reasons, horses sometimes fail to live up to their potential. However, I believe that a horse’s emotional behavior and physical fitness can eventually be a part of the analytical equation in determining the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile.
As my brother, Dallas, and I refine the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software, I believe that we will eventually be able to pick the exact order of finish or be extremely close.
For the first time in the history of the Thoroughbred, the empirical evidence gathered through the robust power of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software shows that the pedigree is the only true standard, indicator of horse performance, especially of their classic potential.
In addition to being an exceptional handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, Dallas and I are confident that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software will prove to be a valuable tool for horse owners and breeders helping them to take the guesswork out of purchasing and breeding their horses.

Thursday, May 14, 2015

American Pharoah, Supreme Ruler Of Kentucky Derby 141, Continues His Run In Preakness Stakes To Win Second Jewel Of Triple Crown



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.
         
This Saturday, the classic trail to Triple Crown glory takes us to Pimlico Race Couse in Baltimore, Maryland, where Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah will attempt to win the second jewel of the crown as the prohibitive 4-5 morning-line favorite in the 140th running of the $1.5 million Preakness Stakes (G1).
          Indeed, American Pharoah is the deserving favorite and he comes into this race with a 5-0-0 record in six starts for Hall of Fame Trainer, Bob Baffert. All of his victories have been in graded stakes competition, including four grade one wins and a win in the grade two Rebel Stakes.
          And, Baffert has made five trips to the winner’s circle of the Preakness Stakes (G1) with Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), Point Given (2001), War Emblem (2002) and Lookin at Lucky (2010).
Jockey Victor Espinoza has been aboard American Pharoah in all five of his victories and he’s made two trips to the Preakness winner’s circle with War Emblem and California Chrome (2014).
Dortmund, the 7-2 morning line second choice, is also trained by Baffert and he comes into this race with a 6-0-1 record in seven starts with his only loss being a third-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Jockey Martin Garcia has been aboard Dortmund in all of his starts and he won the 2010 Preakness on board Lookin at Lucky.
Firing Line, the 4-1 morning line third choice, comes into the Preakness for trainer Simon Callaghan with a 2-4-0 record in six starts and four of those races were in stakes competition including a 14-length win in the Sunland Derby (G3) and a second-place finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1).
Hall of Fame Jockey Gary Stevens has been in the irons on Firing Line for his last three races and he won the Preakness with Silver Charm, Point Given and Oxbow (2013).
Danzig Moon (15-1) is the long shot play, but he’ll need to improve his game if he is going to secure the win. He comes into this race with a 1-2-0 record for trainer Mark Casse.
Those four were among the top finishers in Kentucky Derby 141 and, unless something unforeseen happens that allows one of the new horses in this herd to run into the exotics, they should be a factor in the Preakness as well.
The Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile is a software tool I use to measure classic potential in young Thoroughbreds and it also shows that those four are the top contenders in this race.
Developed by my brother, Dallas, the software profile is comprised of the proprietary Tesio Index and Ancestral Herd Index and it assigns each horse a numerical score. The higher the score, the more potential that horse has to become a classic champion.
Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.
The profile does not take into account other factors that could determine the outcome of a race such as the horse’s will to win or the fact that, for many different reasons, horses sometimes fail to live up to their potential. However, I believe that a horse’s emotional behavior and physical fitness can eventually be a part of the analytical equation in determining the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile.
The first profile shows the original scores of the horses that competed in the Kentucky Derby and it includes scores for the new horses that are entered in this race. Let’s take a look at the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile scores for Preakness Stakes (G1) 140.


Original Ranking
Rank, Horse, Odds          Classic Champion
                                      Thoroughbred Profile

1. Danzig Moon (15-1)      395.63
2. Dortmund (7-2)            391.88
3. Divining Rod (12-1)      385.63
4. American Pharoah (4-5) 384.38*
5. Mr. Z (20-1)                 382.50
6. Firing Line (4-1)           380.63*
7. Bodhisattva (20-1)       368.75
8. Tale of Verve (30-1)      367.50
*Data Mining Analysis


As you can see in the Original Analysis, American Pharoah is ranked fourth with a moderate profile score of 384.38 and Firing Line is ranked sixth with a score of 380.63. Of course, American Pharoah won the Derby and Firing Line finished second.
A common discrepancy between analysis and horse performance is that some horses fail to live up to their potential while others like American Pharoah and Firing Line seem to exceed what is apparent in their breeding.
This raises the question: Why?
Data mining can answer that question. Data mining uses the processing power of modern technology to unlock secrets in the pedigree and quantify the influence of the Ancestral Herd.
In addition to the Original Analysis, Data Mining Model One and Data Mining Model Two have been developed to allow for horses like American Pharoah and Firing Line whose performances have exceeded what is apparent in their breeding.


Data Mining Model One
Rank, Horse, Odds

1. Dortmund (7-2)
2. Danzig Moon (15-1)
3. American Pharoah (4-5)
4. Firing Line (4-1)
5. Divining Rod (12-1)
6. Mr. Z (20-1)
7. Bodhisattva (20-1)
8. Tale of Verve (30-1)


Data Mining Model Two
Rank, Horse, Odds

1. American Pharoah (4-5)
2. Dortmund (7-2)
3. Firing Line (4-1)
4. Danzig Moon (15-1)
5. Divining Rod (12-1)
6. Mr. Z (20-1)
7. Bodhisattva (20-1)
8. Tale of Verve (30-1)


Much of what we do in calculating the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile is proprietary and, as such, Dallas and I decided to not publish the data mining profile scores.
In all three models, Dortmund, Danzig Moon and American Pharoah are in the top four. In Data Mining Model One and Data Mining Model Two, Dortmund, Danzig Moon, American Pharoah and Firing Line are located in the top four.
In the Original Analysis, third-ranked Diving Rod is the only new horse in this herd to crack the top four.
Overall, my brother, Dallas, and I were pleased with the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software analysis of Kentucky Derby 141.
All three models had good results but the Derby Data Mining Model Two was, by far, the best. The model clearly isolated five of the top six finishers – American Pharoah, Dortmund, Frosted, Danzig Moon and Materiality – as the top tier of horses in that race. And, you can read about those results here.
And, the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software was instrumental in picking the top performers in the major prep races leading up to Kentucky Derby 141. You can read about those results here.
The ability of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software to predict specific outcomes of races is robust and its greatest strength lies in its potential to predict long term racing and breeding performance – predictive ability that is valuable in assisting horse owners and breeders take the guesswork out of breeding, training, and purchasing of racehorses.
In addition, we’re confident that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software can be a powerful handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes.

Monday, May 4, 2015

Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ Software Picks Five Of Top Six Finishers In Kentucky Derby 141



©2015 Calvin L. Carter. All rights reserved.

Kentucky Derby 141 is in the history book. Overall, my brother, Dallas, and I are pleased with the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile software analysis of this Derby.
All three models had good results but Data Mining Model Two was, by far, the best. The model clearly isolated five of the top six finishers – American Pharoah, Dortmund, Frosted, Danzig Moon and Materiality – as the top tier of horses in this herd.
Mubtaahij, ranked 1st, and Carpe Diem, ranked 5th, did not run to their ranking.

Data Mining Model Two

Rank, Horse                             Finish
4. American Pharoah               1
10. Firing Line                         2
3. Dortmund                            3
2. Frosted                                4
6. Danzig Moon                       5
7. Materiality                           6
14. Keen Ice                             7
1. Mubtaahij                            8
15. Itsaknockout                      9
5. Carpe Diem                          10
16. Frammento                        11
17. Bolo                                   12
11. Mr. Z                                  13
10. Ocho Ocho Ocho               14
9.  Far Right                            15
13. War Story                          16
18. Tencendur                         17
12. Upstart                              18

Scratches
5. International Star
9. Stanford
19. El Kabeir


My friend, Cindy Bledsoe @BlueStageGroup, is the owner of the Blue Stage Group (www.bluestagegroup.com) and when I showed her the results of this Derby, she crunched some analytics for me and ran a variance report. Here’s what she found:

          Calvin, these results are impressive. The Variance Report shows your average margin of accuracy between your ranking and the actual finish position. It measures the difference between your profile ranking and the actual order of finish.

THE TOP 6

● Your profile rankings for this model produced an average 2.5 position variance
to the final order of finish of the Top 6 finishers.

● If you exclude Firing Line, your accuracy was an astounding 1.4 position variance to the final order of finish of the Top 6 finishers.

For those who "throw out," one could argue you could throw out Firing Line as a fluke performance. I am not saying I do or don't, but some often analyze this way so I've provided it here. I am inclined to do so because your profile model came so close on ALL the other top 6 finishers.

REST OF THE FIELD

● Your profile rankings for this model produced an average overall 4 position variance to the final order of finish for the ENTIRE FIELD.
 
Here is how the entire field breaks down in terms of Finish Accuracy:

4 horses had a Finish Accuracy of either an exact or a 1 position variance to your profile rankings. Since 3 of the 4 (75%) were remarkably in the Top 6 finishers, your profile indicates extreme value to the betting public.

5 horses had a Finish Accuracy of a 2 - 4 position variance.

This means 50% of the field finished at or within a 4 position variance to your profile rankings. This may not sound so exciting until you consider its value for exotic wagering.

6 horses had a Finish Accuracy of a 5 - 6 position variance.

3 horses had a Finish Accuracy of a 7 - 8 position variance.

Well done!


Thank you, Cindy, for that report.
Dallas and I are certain that with more analysis and data mining, the software will be able to hone in much closer to the finish order of the horses not in the top tier.
Like an intricate puzzle, the pedigree contains many secrets of what champions are made of and everything one needs to know about the horse, from the physical conformational characteristics to the emotional and behavioral traits, can be found in the pedigree if one knows the families, Ancestral Herd that formed the foal.
The profile does not take into account other factors that could determine the outcome of a race such as the horse’s will to win or the fact that, for many different reasons, horses sometimes fail to live up to their potential. However, I believe that a horse’s emotional behavior and physical fitness can eventually be a part of the analytical equation in determining the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™.
The ability of the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software to predict specific outcomes of races is robust and its greatest strength lies in its potential to predict long term racing and breeding performance – predictive ability that is valuable in assisting horse owners and breeders take the guesswork out of breeding, training, and purchasing of racehorses.
In addition, we’re confident that the Classic Champion Thoroughbred Profile™ software can be a powerful handicapping tool and predictor of classic races like the Kentucky Derby.